299 Patton Dr

New Castle, VA 24127

$139,950D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Built 1960 · Other · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $857/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$180
• Net cashflow: $-159/mo
• Annual: $-1,912/yr
• Cap rate: 4.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.88%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $39,186

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-159 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $112k (20.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $86k (38.7% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $86k (38.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#519 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Craig County Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #83 of 131 in VA (top 63%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mccleary Elementary (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #742 of 1,108 statewide, top 70%, 211 students, 75% FRL); Craig County High (math 47% / reading 67%, grade C, #263 of 319 statewide, top 84%, 265 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 40% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Craig County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Craig County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $140k implies a 192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?