299 Patton Dr · New Castle, VA 24127

$139,950

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Other public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1960 0.40 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Get away one room cabin with full bath fronting on bold river on paved state maintained road. Large level lot-land in flood plain-house not in flood plain. Attached to old cinder block building (20x24) w/ 8x24 concrete pad. Cabin has deck over looking Craig Creek-over 80ft frontage. App. 20 min from Fincastle; 10min from New Castle.

Key facts

• Screened in porch
• Metal roof
• Creek frontage

Tags

• CREEK FRONTAGE
• SCREENED IN PORCH
• METAL ROOF
• CAMPER HOOK UP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.4 acres (about 17,424 sq ft)
• Financial info: Annual tax amount referenced

Exterior

• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1960
• Construction: 1960 construction
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Waterfront on a river or other water body

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms total; 1 bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Has cooling; Heating: other (see remarks)
• Interior features: Two total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-159 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $112k (20.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $86k (38.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $86k (38.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#519 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Craig County Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #83 of 131 in VA (top 63%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mccleary Elementary (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #742 of 1,108 statewide, top 70%, 211 students, 75% FRL); Craig County High (math 47% / reading 67%, grade C, #263 of 319 statewide, top 84%, 265 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 40% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Craig County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Craig County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $140k implies a 192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $85,727 (38.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.88%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $66,006
• Equity at exit: $126,078

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.16×
• Total profit: $202,224
• Equity at exit: $271,892

Cash invested: $39,186 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24127

• Home prices YoY: 18.6%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 13.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $857 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $532/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$180
• Net cashflow: $-159

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,059

Max offer price $111,807

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,988
• Closing costs: $4,198
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-11
   listed $139,950 Active
3. 2011-07-15
   soldstatus $48,000 334-char remark

   Show marketing remark (334 chars)

   Get away one room cabin with full bath fronting on bold river on paved state maintained road. Large level lot-land in flood plain-house not in flood plain. Attached to old cinder block building (20x24) w/ 8x24 concrete pad. Cabin has deck over looking Craig Creek-over 80ft frontage. App. 20 min from Fincastle; 10min from New Castle.

4. 2011-06-03
   listed $64,950 334-char remark

   Show marketing remark (334 chars)

   Get away one room cabin with full bath fronting on bold river on paved state maintained road. Large level lot-land in flood plain-house not in flood plain. Attached to old cinder block building (20x24) w/ 8x24 concrete pad. Cabin has deck over looking Craig Creek-over 80ft frontage. App. 20 min from Fincastle; 10min from New Castle.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $532 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,148 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$616/yr (+$51/mo · 115.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,287
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,839
• − Property taxes: −$532
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$823
• − Management: −$823
• − Depreciation: −$4,071
• Taxable loss: −$4,501
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,080
• After-tax cash flow: $-831/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Craig County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101020
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $48,848
• Composite: 46.33/100
• National rank: #2469
• State rank: #83 of 131 in VA

Livability — New Castle

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #519
• US rank: #23547

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,184

Population outlook (Craig County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,253 people
• By 2030: 5,208 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 4,949 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 4,489 · -14.5%
• By 2075: 3,379 · -35.7%
• By 2100: 2,293 · -56.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Craig

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.7) · D 17.4% · R 82.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -31.2pp · 2024: -64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.7 2020: R+61.5 2016: R+57.4 2012: R+34.8 2008: R+31.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.92%
• Current HPI: 223.1666
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+115.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — MLSRV
• 2026-05-11 Listed $139,950 MLSRV
• 2011-07-15 Sold (MLS) $48,000 MLSRV
• 2011-06-03 Listed $64,950 MLSRV

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $532 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.