1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
770 sqft ·
Built 1967
· Condo
· Active
· 124 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,825/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,049
Tax + insurance
−$333
HOA
−$976
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$593
Net cashflow
$-126/mo
Annual
$-1,516/yr
Cap rate
5.54%
Cash-on-cash
-2.71%
DSCR
0.88
1% rule
1.41%
Cash to close
$56,000
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $200k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-126 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (9.1% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
Location reads 72/100 on livability (#200 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities D+, cost of living F.
Saddleback Valley Unified (suburban): math 51% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #67 of 517 in CA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: HOA is 35% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
4 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $54k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $136k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.4% in Laguna Woods — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,825/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($59k/yr) (locally 1572% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-33X2P273PVHB1F
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29