154 Jefferson St

Albany, NY 12210

$369,800B

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,970 sqft · Built 1840 · MultiFamily · Pending · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,698/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,939
• Tax + insurance: −$990
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$987
• Net cashflow: $782/mo
• Annual: $9,383/yr
• Cap rate: 8.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.06%
• DSCR: 1.40
• 1% rule: 1.27%
• Cash to close: $103,544

Investor read

• This is a 2×1bd/1ba + 1×2bd/1ba units multifamily listed at $370k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $782 ($9k/yr) — positive. Per door: $261/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $370k).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $364k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#129 in NY, #2,083 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Albany City School District (urban): math 37% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #543 of 590 in NY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Albany High School (math 74% / reading 67%, grade B+, #710 of 1,100 statewide, top 65%, 2,676 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools at 69% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 38% district-wide (+32 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Albany City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1840 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.9%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 675 units permitted in Albany County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Albany County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.9% rent growth), your $104k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 5.7% in Albany — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,698/mo this rent would consume 101% of the median local household income ($56k/yr) (locally 1211% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1840 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.