154 Jefferson St · Albany, NY 12210

$369,800

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,970 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1840 2,178 sqft lot $125/sqft · 35% below area Est $568k · 35% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Proudly offered at a new price as part of a larger portfolio or available to purchase individually for the first time since its historically guided rejuvenation, this Federal style 3 unit is located within walking distance to the Empire State Plaza and features original decorative architecture! 154 Jefferson St. is comprised of (2) 1 bedroom apartments on the first and second levels, and a spacious 2 bedroom unit on the third level. Walk inside the recessed entry and you'll find interior access to each unit and hardwood floors, 2 over 2 windows with simple wooden lintels, and private rear porches within each apartment. 3 gas fired boilers provide provide an efficient heat source, and each u

Key facts

• Decorative cornice
• Historical allure
• Carved frieze

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• PRIVATE REAR PORCHES
• EFFICIENT HEAT SOURCE
• DECORATIVE CORNICE
• CARVED FRIEZE
• HISTORICAL ALLURE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Tenant pays trash collection, electricity, and gas

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Circuit breaker electrical service; Cable available
• Home design: Triplex; 3-unit multi-family property; Approximately 2,970 total living area
• Construction: Clapboard and wood siding exterior; Rubber roof
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Garden; Level lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Unit 1: 1 bedroom; Unit 2: 1 bedroom; Unit 3: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms (one on 1st level, one on 2nd level, one on 3rd level); Unit 1: 1 full bath; Unit 2: 1 full bath; Unit 3: 1 full bath
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Hot water heating; Natural gas
• Interior features: Solid surface counters
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2×1bd/1ba + 1×2bd/1ba units multifamily listed at $370k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $782 ($9k/yr) — positive. Per door: $261/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $370k).
• Recommended offer: $364k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 5.7% in Albany — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#129 in NY, #2,083 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Albany City School District (urban): math 37% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #543 of 590 in NY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Albany High School (math 74% / reading 67%, grade B+, #710 of 1,100 statewide, top 65%, 2,676 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools at 69% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 38% district-wide (+32 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Albany City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.9%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 675 units permitted in Albany County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,698/mo this rent would consume 101% of the median local household income ($56k/yr) (locally 1211% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Albany County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.9% rent growth), your $104k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1840 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $364,253 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1840 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.06%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $567,720
• List price: $369,800
• Delta: -34.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
126 Jefferson St	0.06mi	4/3.5	3,120 (+5%)	5mo	$499,000	$160	83
220 Elm St	0.04mi	4/3.0	2,776 (-6%)	12mo	$378,000	$136	77
492 Madison Ave	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,995 (+1%)	4mo	$360,000	$120	74
335 Madison Ave	0.09mi	4/3.5	3,372 (+14%)	3mo	$240,000	$71	69
115.5 Lancaster St	0.26mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,104 (+4%)	8mo	$475,000	$153	66
70 Park Ave	0.43mi	4/3.5	3,300 (+11%)	1mo	$345,000	$105	58
251 Delaware Ave	0.68mi	4/4.0	2,920 (-2%)	12mo	$215,000	$74	51
270 Morton Ave	0.44mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,714 (-9%)	9mo	$477,000	$176	49
114 Lark St	0.65mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,835 (-4%)	11mo	$260,000	$92	48
111 Grand St	0.55mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,168 (+7%)	15mo	$275,000	$87	46
9 Osborne St	0.61mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,772 (-7%)	15mo	$250,000	$90	41
211 Clinton Ave	0.71mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,640 (-11%)	4mo	$250,000	$95	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.86% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $9,129
• Equity at exit: $55,138

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $157,512
• Equity at exit: $31,974

Cash invested: $103,544 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12210

• Home prices YoY: -2.3%
• Rents YoY: 6.9%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 20.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,698 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,939
• Tax from tax record: −$836 /mo · $10,034/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$987
• Net cashflow: $782

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,708

Max offer price $369,800

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $991	-5% $887	+0% $782	+5% $677	+10% $573
Rent	-10% $411	-5% $596	+0% $782	+5% $967	+10% $1,153
Rate	-1.0pp $968	-0.5pp $876	base $782	+0.5pp $686	+1.0pp $589

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	1	1	$3,026
1× unit	2	1	$1,671
Total (3 units)			$4,698

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,450
• Closing costs: $11,094
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
257 Quail St Albany, NY	4.0	2.5	2208	$2,800	$1.27	45d	1	1.01mi
154 Spring St Albany, NY	3.0	1.0	2500	$1,695	$0.68	45d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-23
   listed $369,800 Active 1405-char remark
2. 2026-01-03
   historical
3. 2025-10-15
   price $389,900
4. 2025-10-15
   price $395,000
5. 2025-10-02
   listed $409,800 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $10,034 · $836/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,034 · $836/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,376
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,715
• − Property taxes: −$10,034
• − Insurance: −$1,849
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,510
• − Management: −$4,510
• − Depreciation: −$10,758
• Taxable income: $4,000
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$960
• After-tax cash flow: $8,422/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Albany City School District
• NCES district ID: 3602460
• Math proficiency: 37% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,568
• Composite: 32.34/100
• National rank: #5744
• State rank: #543 of 590 in NY

Livability — Albany

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #129
• US rank: #2083

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Albany, NY
• County: Albany County · 196,626 people
• City population: 116,921
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,297
• Household income: $55,843
• Rent vs Own: 75.3% rent · 24.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1211.0

Population outlook (Albany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 320,794 people
• By 2030: 327,401 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 338,218 · +5.4%
• By 2050: 348,467 · +8.6%
• By 2075: 381,693 · +19.0%
• By 2100: 393,809 · +22.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 41% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Albany

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+25.8) · D 62.9% · R 37.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 25.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+25.8 2020: D+31.4 2016: D+24.3 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.92%
• Current HPI: 252.3084
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.86%
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-9.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $369,800 Global MLS
• 2026-01-03 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $389,900 Global MLS
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $395,000 Global MLS
• 2025-10-02 Listed $409,800 Global MLS

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,034 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.