620 Park Creek Ave

Forney, TX 75126

$120,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Pending · 66 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,944/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$195
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $711/mo
• Annual: $8,537/yr
• Cap rate: 13.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.41%
• DSCR: 2.13
• 1% rule: 1.62%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $711 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Claybon El (math 55% / reading 58%, grade C+, #559 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 575 students, 35% FRL); Warren Middle (math 43% / reading 50%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 903 students, 26% FRL); Forney H S (math 64% / reading 58%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,272 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 29% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 55% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Forney ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.4% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 4.1% in Forney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.