620 Park Creek Ave · Forney, TX 75126

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 66 Days on market

Built 2000 4,138 sqft lot Est $169k · 29% under ↓ 11% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits with this 2001 Spirit single-wide mobile home situated on a rare double lot with open field views behind the property — no rear neighbors. The extra land offers added space, flexibility, and privacy that’s hard to find at this price point. This property presents strong investment potential as a rental, flip, or affordable housing option. The home needs bathroom repairs, cosmetic updates, and general cleaning, making it an ideal value-add project for investors or buyers looking to build equity. With the right improvements, this property could shine and deliver solid returns.

Key facts

• Double lot
• Investment property
• Field behind lot

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• INVESTMENT PROPERTY
• FIELD BEHIND LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $711 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 4.1% in Forney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Claybon El (math 55% / reading 58%, grade C+, #559 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 575 students, 35% FRL); Warren Middle (math 43% / reading 50%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 903 students, 26% FRL); Forney H S (math 64% / reading 58%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,272 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 29% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 55% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Forney ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.4% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.41%
• DSCR: 2.13
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $169,024
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
706 Park Creek Ave	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,224 (+1%)	9mo	$169,900	$139	84

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $22,847
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $66,250
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,944 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,738/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $711

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,043

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $779	-5% $745	+0% $711	+5% $677	+10% $643
Rent	-10% $558	-5% $635	+0% $711	+5% $788	+10% $865
Rate	-1.0pp $772	-0.5pp $742	base $711	+0.5pp $680	+1.0pp $649

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
404 Oak St Unit 1 Forney, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,349	$1.35	3d	1	0.31mi
124 Stanford Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,800	$1.21	9d	1	0.50mi
517 Burgett St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,695	$1.32	4d	1	0.56mi
304 Burgett St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,595	$1.13	45d	1	0.58mi
201 Wildwood Blvd Forney, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	964	$1,955	$2.03	0d	30	0.60mi
300 Trailhouse Ln Forney, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1041	$2,115	$2.03	0d	36	0.63mi
407 S Bois D Arc St Forney, TX	3.0	1.5	1008	$1,500	$1.49	45d	1	0.76mi
113 Galloping Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,769	$1.19	18d	1	0.76mi
308 Southlake Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1491	$1,965	$1.32	4d	1	0.86mi
905 Royal St Forney, TX	3.0	1.5	1250	$1,750	$1.40	45d	1	0.89mi
920 Royal St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,870	$1.44	5d	1	0.90mi
603 Woodcrest Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1234	$1,805	$1.46	26d	1	0.99mi
415 Southlake Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1283	$1,723	$1.34	45d	1	0.99mi
415 Southlake Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1283	$1,913	$1.49	8d	1	0.99mi
404 Woodcrest Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1434	$1,900	$1.32	45d	1	1.04mi
416 Woodcrest Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1379	$1,950	$1.41	22d	1	1.10mi
907 Alpine St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,810	$1.39	45d	1	1.12mi
416 Forestwood Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1267	$1,799	$1.42	4d	1	1.12mi
509 Southlake Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1157	$2,299	$1.99	14d	1	1.13mi
604 Carl C Senter St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1314	$2,300	$1.75	3d	1	1.27mi
213 Independence Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1487	$1,900	$1.28	45d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-25
   price $120,000
3. 2026-03-04
   price $129,900
4. 2026-01-27
   listed $135,000 Active
5. 2000-04-05
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,738 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,196 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$458/yr (+$38/mo · 26.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,324
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,738
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,866
• − Management: −$1,866
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $7,042
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,690
• After-tax cash flow: $6,847/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forney, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $120,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $129,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $135,000 NTREIS
• 2000-04-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,738 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.