1547 11th Ave

Guin, AL 35563

$21,900C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,520 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $979/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$115
• Tax + insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $597/mo
• Annual: $7,166/yr
• Cap rate: 39.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 116.87%
• DSCR: 6.20
• 1% rule: 4.47%
• Cash to close: $6,132

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $22k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $597 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($979 rent vs $22k).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($21k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $21k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($151 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#275 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Marion County (rural): math 20% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #56 of 129 in AL (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marion County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.