1547 11th Ave · Guin, AL 35563

$21,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,520 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1960 $14/sqft · 84% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This home will be a good one for an investment property. This house is just a few miles from shops, restaurants and school. Per county information this house is situated on app. 4 acres, buyer is responsible to survey. Property is under Highest & Best with a current due date of 5/13/2026 11:59 PM Mountain Time

Key facts

• Listed 39 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No dedicated parking
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; 1 story
• Exterior features: Directions: From Guin take 278 West, then turn right, then right on 11th Ave

Interior

• Bedrooms: Bedrooms included (see full listing for count and room-level details)
• Bathrooms: Bathrooms included (see full listing for details)
• Interior features: One-level living

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $22k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $597 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($979 rent vs $22k).
• Recommended offer: $21k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#275 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Marion County (rural): math 20% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #56 of 129 in AL (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($151 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Marion County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($21k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $21,243 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 39.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 116.87%
• DSCR: 6.20
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $140,339
• List price: $21,900
• Delta: -84.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.15×
• Total profit: $49,992
• Equity at exit: $19,729

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 20.14×
• Total profit: $117,368
• Equity at exit: $42,547

Cash invested: $6,132 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35563

• Home prices YoY: 17.2%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $979 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$115
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $623/yr
• Insurance: −$9
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $597

Break-even live

Break-even rent $223

Max offer price $21,900

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,475
• Closing costs: $657
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-12
   status $21,900 Pending 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $21,900 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $21,900 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $21,900 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $21,900 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $21,900 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $21,900 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $21,900 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $21,900 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-04-29
    listed $21,900 Active 317-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $623 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $623 · $52/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,743
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,227
• − Property taxes: −$623
• − Insurance: −$110
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$939
• − Management: −$939
• − Depreciation: −$637
• Taxable income: $7,268
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,744
• After-tax cash flow: $5,422/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion County
• NCES district ID: 0102310
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $32,048
• Composite: 27.69/100
• National rank: #6911
• State rank: #56 of 129 in AL

Livability — Guin

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #275
• US rank: #18358

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Guin, AL
• Population (ZIP): 3,701

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,759 people
• By 2030: 27,834 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 25,974 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 24,129 · -16.1%
• By 2075: 20,179 · -29.8%
• By 2100: 16,341 · -43.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 9% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+81.7) · D 8.8% · R 90.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.6pp toward R · 2008: -56.1pp · 2024: -81.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+81.7 2020: R+77.8 2016: R+76.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+56.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 25.62%
• Current HPI: 174.72
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+15.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Pending — Walker County Area MLS
• 2026-06-08 Sold (MLS) $25,200 Walker County Area MLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $21,900 Walker County Area MLS

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $623 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.