2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
900 sqft ·
Built 1970
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 109 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,003/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$572
Tax + insurance
−$237
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$211
Net cashflow
$-17/mo
Annual
$-199/yr
Cap rate
6.11%
Cash-on-cash
-0.65%
DSCR
0.97
1% rule
0.92%
Cash to close
$30,520
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $109k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-17 ($-199/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $106k (2.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $100k (8.0% below list).
It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $99k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#217 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, commute F, employment F.
Harlingen CISD (urban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #647 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Bowie El (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 337 students, 94% FRL); Coakley Middle (math 22% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 660 students, 83% FRL); Harlingen H S - South (math 47% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,044 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 1,571 students, 75% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 468 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.8% in Harlingen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-35ZXX60JBBXNW7
· Data 1 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29