633 Parkway Dr

St. Paul, MN 55106

$138,500C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 845 sqft · Built 1909 · SingleFamily · Active · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,578/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$726
• Tax + insurance: −$282
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $238/mo
• Annual: $2,856/yr
• Cap rate: 8.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.36%
• DSCR: 1.33
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $38,780

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $138k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $238 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $138k).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $136k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $958 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1909 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 255 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.3% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1909 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.