320 4th St

Bagley, IA 50026

$99,900C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,187 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 83 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,020/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $140/mo
• Annual: $1,684/yr
• Cap rate: 7.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.02%
• DSCR: 1.27
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $27,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $140 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#862 in IA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Panorama Community School District (rural): math 70% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #146 of 289 in IA (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Guthrie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Guthrie County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $100k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.