320 4th St · Bagley, IA 50026

$99,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,187 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1900 0.33 ac lot $84/sqft · at area comps Est $103k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this cozy and character-filled 2-bedroom 1 bathroom home. In addition to the two main bedrooms, you’ll find a nonconforming bedroom connected to the second bedroom that offers unlimited potential. This unique layout opens the door to endless possibilities to fit your lifestyle. Step inside to a warm and inviting interior featuring a spacious kitchen with plenty of cabinet storage and room to cook, gather, and entertain. Natural light flows through the home, while the functional layout makes everyday living easy and comfortable. Outside, enjoy a welcoming front porch—perfect for morning coffee or relaxing evenings. The property also includes a 2-stall garage with additional space for a workshop or hobby area, making it a dream setup for anyone needing extra storage or workspace.

Key facts

• 0.33 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1900

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $140 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#862 in IA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Panorama Community School District (rural): math 70% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #146 of 289 in IA (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Guthrie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Guthrie County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $100k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $93,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.02%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $102,986
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -3.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 2nd Ave	0.26mi	2/1.0	1,336 (+13%)	5mo	$35,000	$26	62
223 3rd St	0.10mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,248 (+5%)	24mo	$115,000	$92	60
103 1st Ave	0.29mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,300 (+10%)	12mo	$157,000	$121	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.67% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $19,227
• Equity at exit: $43,060

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.08×
• Total profit: $58,134
• Equity at exit: $64,949

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50026

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,020 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $842

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $99,900 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $104,900 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $104,900 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $104,900 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $104,900 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $104,900 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $104,900 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $104,900 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $104,900 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $104,900 Active 64 DOM
16. 2026-03-27
    status Active 811-char remark

    Show marketing remark (811 chars)

    Welcome to this cozy and character-filled 2-bedroom 1 bathroom home. In addition to the two main bedrooms, you’ll find a nonconforming bedroom connected to the second bedroom that offers unlimited potential. This unique layout opens the door to endless possibilities to fit your lifestyle. Step inside to a warm and inviting interior featuring a spacious kitchen with plenty of cabinet storage and room to cook, gather, and entertain. Natural light flows through the home, while the functional layout makes everyday living easy and comfortable. Outside, enjoy a welcoming front porch—perfect for morning coffee or relaxing evenings. The property also includes a 2-stall garage with additional space for a workshop or hobby area, making it a dream setup for anyone needing extra storage or workspace.

17. 2026-03-26
    listed $112,900 Active 811-char remark

    Show marketing remark (811 chars)

    Welcome to this cozy and character-filled 2-bedroom 1 bathroom home. In addition to the two main bedrooms, you’ll find a nonconforming bedroom connected to the second bedroom that offers unlimited potential. This unique layout opens the door to endless possibilities to fit your lifestyle. Step inside to a warm and inviting interior featuring a spacious kitchen with plenty of cabinet storage and room to cook, gather, and entertain. Natural light flows through the home, while the functional layout makes everyday living easy and comfortable. Outside, enjoy a welcoming front porch—perfect for morning coffee or relaxing evenings. The property also includes a 2-stall garage with additional space for a workshop or hobby area, making it a dream setup for anyone needing extra storage or workspace.

18. 2025-08-12
    historical
19. 2025-06-16
    price $115,000
20. 2025-06-16
    price $115,000
21. 2025-05-22
    price $140,000
22. 2025-05-22
    price $140,000
23. 2025-05-08
    listed $150,000 Active
24. 2019-08-06
    soldstatus $60,500
25. 2019-08-02
    soldstatus $60,200
26. 2019-05-30
    listed $58,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,200 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,384 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: +$184/yr (+$15/mo · 15.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,241
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$979
• − Management: −$979
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $81
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$19
• After-tax cash flow: $1,665/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Panorama Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1900025
• Math proficiency: 70% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $53,636
• Composite: 59.31/100
• National rank: #933
• State rank: #146 of 289 in IA

Livability — Bagley

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #862
• US rank: #20045

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bagley, IA
• Population (ZIP): 518

Population outlook (Guthrie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,248 people
• By 2030: 9,993 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 9,440 · -7.9%
• By 2050: 8,926 · -12.9%
• By 2075: 8,466 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 7,842 · -23.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guthrie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.0) · D 30.3% · R 68.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.3pp toward R · 2008: -7.7pp · 2024: -38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.0 2020: R+35.9 2016: R+33.3 2012: R+10.2 2008: R+7.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.67%
• Current HPI: 105.6547
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+92.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Relisted — IAR
• 2026-03-26 Listed $112,900 IAR
• 2025-08-12 Listing Removed — DMMLS
• 2025-06-16 Price Changed $115,000 CIBOR
• 2025-06-16 Price Changed $115,000 DMMLS
• 2025-05-22 Price Changed $140,000 CIBOR
• 2025-05-22 Price Changed $140,000 DMMLS
• 2025-05-08 Listed $150,000 DMMLS
• 2019-08-06 Sold (Public Records) $60,500 Public Records
• 2019-08-02 Sold (MLS) $60,200 DMMLS
• 2019-05-30 Listed $58,700 DMMLS

Property tax history

+10.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,200 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.