Ellis Plan

Mineral Wells, TX 76067

$202,990F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,195 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 218 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,635/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,152
• Tax + insurance: −$366
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $-226/mo
• Annual: $-2,714/yr
• Cap rate: 5.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.41%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $61,492

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $203k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-226 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (19.5% below list).
• It's been on market 218 days — a 12% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $163k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#278 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Mineral Wells ISD (town): math 30% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #636 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mineral Wells El (math 36% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 1,915 students, 79% FRL); Mineral Wells J H (math 26% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,122 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 498 students, 75% FRL); Mineral Wells H S (math 15% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 920 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 58% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 492 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 77d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 27 units permitted in Palo Pinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Palo Pinto County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.8% in Mineral Wells — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 218 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.