Is Ellis Plan in Mineral Wells, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 5.1% cap rate and $-226/mo modeled cash flow at a $202,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for Ellis Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 5.1% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,635/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 32.86

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +8.0/30.0
ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.6/5.0
Schools +2.8/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
1% rule +2.4/10.0
DSCR +2.0/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$202,990

Ellis Plan · Mineral Wells, TX 76067

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,195 sqft · SingleFamily · 218 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

The Ellis is a thoughtfully designed single-story home offering approximately 1195 sq. ft. of living space with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. A welcoming front porch and foyer lead into an open-concept layout that brings the kitchen, dining area, and family room together into one bright, cohesive space. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, a centrally located sink with views toward the living areas, and convenient access to the dining space for easy entertaining. The private primary suite is tucked at the rear of the home and includes a walk-in closet and a full bath.

Key facts

Walk-in closet
Front porch
Open-concept layout

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $203k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-226 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (7.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (19.5% below list).
Recommended offer: $163k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.8% in Mineral Wells — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 72/100 on livability (#278 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D, amenities F.
Mineral Wells ISD (town): math 30% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #636 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Mineral Wells El (math 36% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 1,915 students, 79% FRL); Mineral Wells J H (math 26% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,122 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 498 students, 75% FRL); Mineral Wells H S (math 15% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 920 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 58% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 492 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 77d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 27 units permitted in Palo Pinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Palo Pinto County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 218 days — a 12% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,490 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 218 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.74% ✗
Cap rate: 5.06%
Cash-on-cash: -4.41%
DSCR: 0.80
GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $219,615
List price: $202,990
Delta: -7.57%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
131 Mach Way	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,321 (+10%)	1mo	$214,615	$162	65
137 Mach Way	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,434 (+20%)	2mo	$219,615	$153	59
138 Mach Way	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,434 (+20%)	1mo	$221,615	$155	58
1601 24th Ave	1.05mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+3%)	3mo	$230,000	$187	58
136 Mach Way	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,434 (+20%)	2mo	$214,615	$150	57
1601 SE 24th Ave	1.05mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+3%)	17mo	$235,000	$191	46
4200 Mh 379	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,392 (+16%)	21mo	$195,000	$140	39
578 N Swanson Rd	1.10mi	3/2.0	1,252 (+5%)	23mo	$365,000	$292	38
2108 SE 19th St	1.12mi	3/1.0	1,069 (-10%)	7mo	$174,900	$164	38
2100 SE 25th Ave	0.88mi	3/2.0	1,399 (+17%)	6mo	$189,000	$135	35
1802 SE 26th Ave	0.88mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+13%)	11mo	$169,000	$125	34
2104 22nd Ave SE	1.01mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,405 (+18%)	13mo	$165,000	$117	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -23.7%
Equity multiple: 0.19×
Total profit: $-49,965
Equity at exit: $32,745

10-year hold

IRR: -18.7%
Equity multiple: -0.01×
Total profit: $-61,955
Equity at exit: $18,988

Cash invested: $61,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 27 active · 15 under contract
Months of supply: 23.1 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $219,990 ($164/sqft)
Median days on market: 5 d
This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking: +12.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76067

Active inventory: 492
Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,635 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,152
Tax est. 1.5%: −$275 /mo · $3,294/yr
Insurance: −$92
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
Net cashflow: $-226

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,921

Max offer price $186,892

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-74	-5% $-150	+0% $-226	+5% $-302	+10% $-378
Rent	-10% $-355	-5% $-291	+0% $-226	+5% $-162	+10% $-97
Rate	-1.0pp $-116	-0.5pp $-170	base $-226	+0.5pp $-283	+1.0pp $-341

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $54,904
Closing costs: $6,588
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
129 Mach Way Mineral Wells, TX	4.0	2.0	1471	$2,075	$1.41	1d	1	0.37mi
3116 SE Airport Rd Mineral Wells, TX	4.0	2.0	1248	$1,370	$1.10	165d	1	0.46mi
5507 Racetrack Ln Mineral Wells, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,360	$1.12	165d	1	0.48mi
1912 SE 15th St Mineral Wells, TX	3.0	1.5	1043	$1,700	$1.63	165d	1	1.31mi
1911 SE 14th St Mineral Wells, TX	3.0	2.0	1256	$1,600	$1.27	165d	1	1.34mi
1613 SE Park Rd Mineral Wells, TX	3.0	2.0	1210	$2,300	$1.90	65d	1	1.35mi
1909 SE 14th St Mineral Wells, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,600	$1.19	5d	1	1.35mi
1607 SE 18th St Mineral Wells, TX	4.0	2.0	1245	$1,800	$1.45	6d	1	1.42mi
1703 SE 13th St Mineral Wells, TX	4.0	2.0	1248	$1,675	$1.34	77d	1	1.46mi

Property features AI

Finance

Financial info: List price $199,990

Exterior

Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
Home design: Single-family plan named 'Ellis'Active new-construction plan

Interior

Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Interior features: Living area of 1,195 (interior size provided)

Listing history 50 events

2026-11-08

days on market $202,990 Active 218 DOM
2026-11-07

days on market $202,990 Active 217 DOM
2026-11-06

days on market $202,990 Active 216 DOM
2026-11-05

days on market $202,990 Active 215 DOM
2026-11-04

days on market $202,990 Active 214 DOM
2026-11-02

days on market $202,990 Active 212 DOM
2026-11-01

days on market $202,990 Active 211 DOM
2026-10-31

days on market $202,990 Active 210 DOM
2026-10-30

days on market $202,990 Active 209 DOM
2026-10-29

days on market $202,990 Active 208 DOM
2026-10-28

days on market $202,990 Active 207 DOM
2026-10-27

days on market $202,990 Active 206 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $202,990 Active 205 DOM
2026-10-25

days on market $202,990 Active 204 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $202,990 Active 203 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $202,990 Active 202 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $202,990 Active 201 DOM
2026-10-21

days on market $202,990 Active 200 DOM
2026-10-20

days on market $202,990 Active 199 DOM
2026-10-19

days on market $202,990 Active 198 DOM
2026-10-18

days on market $202,990 Active 197 DOM
2026-10-17

days on market $202,990 Active 196 DOM
2026-10-16

days on market $202,990 Active 195 DOM
2026-10-15

days on market $202,990 Active 194 DOM
2026-10-14

days on market $202,990 Active 193 DOM
2026-10-14

days on market $202,990 Active 192 DOM
2026-10-12

days on market $202,990 Active 191 DOM
2026-10-11

days on market $202,990 Active 190 DOM
2026-10-10

days on market $202,990 Active 189 DOM
2026-10-09

days on market $202,990 Active 188 DOM
2026-10-08

days on market $202,990 Active 187 DOM
2026-10-07

days on market $202,990 Active 186 DOM
2026-10-06

days on market $202,990 Active 185 DOM
2026-10-05

days on market $202,990 Active 184 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $202,990 Active 183 DOM
2026-10-03

days on market $202,990 Active 182 DOM
2026-10-02

days on market $202,990 Active 181 DOM
2026-10-01

days on market $202,990 Active 180 DOM
2026-09-30

days on market $202,990 Active 179 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $202,990 Active 178 DOM
2026-09-28

days on market $202,990 Active 177 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $202,990 Active 176 DOM
2026-09-26

days on market $202,990 Active 175 DOM
2026-09-25

days on market $202,990 Active 174 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $202,990 Active 173 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $202,990 Active 172 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $202,990 Active 170 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $202,990 Active 169 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $202,990 Active 168 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $202,990 Active 167 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $19,619
− Mortgage interest: −$12,302
− Property taxes: −$3,294
− Insurance: −$1,098
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,570
− Management: −$1,570
− Depreciation: −$6,389
Taxable loss: −$6,603

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,585
After-tax cash flow: $-1,129/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,975–$17,925 screening

The Ellis Plan home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good layout and is move-in ready. Potential buyers and renters will appreciate the fresh paint and landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and the home's overall appearance. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers. ↑
Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
Resale Bathroom updates — Updating bathrooms can improve the home's appeal and increase its value. ↑
Rental HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract renters and reduce utility costs. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Mineral Wells El F TX #2,268/4,322 Nat'l #24,950/41,679 High Mineral Wells H S F TX #1,333/1,632 Nat'l #13,437/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Mineral Wells ISD
NCES district ID: 4830950
Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -10.00%
Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income: $40,027
Composite: 25.26/100
National rank: #7500
State rank: #636 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Mineral Wells

Score: 72/100
State rank: #278
US rank: #6474

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Mineral Wells, TX
County: Palo Pinto County · 27,500 people
City population: 21,080
Metro: Mineral Wells, TX
Population (ZIP): 21,080
Household income: $62,190
Rent vs Own: 35.5% rent · 64.5% own
Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

Population outlook (Palo Pinto County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 27,500 people
By 2030: 27,079 · -1.5%
By 2040: 26,135 · -5.0%
By 2050: 25,215 · -8.3%
By 2075: 23,416 · -14.9%
By 2100: 20,300 · -26.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Palo Pinto

2024 margin: Solid R (+67.1) · D 16.1% · R 83.2%
2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.2pp · 2024: -67.1pp
All cycles: 2024: R+67.1 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+64.1 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+48.2

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -134.09%
Current HPI: 240.3647
Rent YoY: —
Metro: Mineral Wells, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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