304 Charlesgate Cir

Harris Hill, NY 14051

$222,800D

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,171 sqft · Built 1973 · Townhouse · Active · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,975/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,168
• Tax + insurance: −$430
• HOA: −$305
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $-342/mo
• Annual: $-4,109/yr
• Cap rate: 4.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.59%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $62,384

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $223k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-342 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (27.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (11.3% below list).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $162k (27.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#345 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Williamsville Central School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #114 of 590 in NY (top 19%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 152 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.6% in Harris Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($136k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?