249 Private Road 4434

New Fairview, TX 76078

$289,900F

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,016 sqft · Built 1997 · Manufactured · Pending · 102 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,047/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax + insurance: −$409
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-312/mo
• Annual: $-3,742/yr
• Cap rate: 5.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.61%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $81,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath manufactured listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-312 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (19.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (29.4% below list).
• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $205k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#901 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Decatur ISD (town): math 40% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #323 of 826 in TX (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carson El (math 37% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 548 students, 44% FRL); Mccarroll Middle (math 33% / reading 35%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 821 students, 47% FRL); Decatur H S (math 49% / reading 58%, grade C-, #428 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,140 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 264 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.5% in New Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.