249 Private Road 4434 · New Fairview, TX 76078

$289,900

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,016 sqft · Manufactured public records · 102 Days on market

Built 1997 2.11 ac lot Est $240k · 21% over ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully maintained Palm Harbor double-wide home. 23 years old and still lovely, almost like new. Home is perfect for a small or growing family. Split master that you will not believe, it is HUGE! Separate bathrooms with Jack & Jill walk in closet. Gorgeous tub to soak in on hard days. Outside of house recently painted; all three toilets recently replaced. Septic serviced 1 year ago. Huge 2 acre lot gives lots of privacy, room for a horse or two and a garden. Property line backs up to a creek, but is fenced from creek to provide safety for little ones. 2 carports, back porch, front porch entries. Beautiful kitchen and cabinetry. You will be able to host many friends & family for get-togethers here in your fantastic new home! Everything is up to code. 100-year flood plain applies only to a small area near the creek. It does not apply to the home.

Key facts

• Major appliances
• Fenced property
• Second carport

Tags

• TWO ACRES
• WONDERFUL TREES
• NEW WINDOWS
• MAJOR APPLIANCES
• FENCED PROPERTY
• SECOND CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath manufactured listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-312 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (19.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (29.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.5% in New Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#901 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Decatur ISD (town): math 40% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #323 of 826 in TX (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carson El (math 37% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 548 students, 44% FRL); Mccarroll Middle (math 33% / reading 35%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 821 students, 47% FRL); Decatur H S (math 49% / reading 58%, grade C-, #428 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,140 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 264 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,739 (29.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.61%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $239,904
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
270 Private Road 4435	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,100 (+4%)	7mo	$249,000	$119	70
183 Private Road 4434	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,851 (-8%)	22mo	$219,900	$119	58
156 Private Road 4436	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,128 (+6%)	11mo	$295,000	$139	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $138,012
• Equity at exit: $261,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.20×
• Total profit: $422,012
• Equity at exit: $563,212

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76078

• Home prices YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,047 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$288 /mo · $3,458/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-312

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,442

Max offer price $234,814

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-148	-5% $-230	+0% $-312	+5% $-394	+10% $-476
Rent	-10% $-474	-5% $-393	+0% $-312	+5% $-231	+10% $-150
Rate	-1.0pp $-166	-0.5pp $-238	base $-312	+0.5pp $-387	+1.0pp $-463

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2025-09-02
   status Pending
2. 2025-06-22
   price $289,900
3. 2025-05-23
   listed $299,999 Active
4. 2023-06-28
   soldstatus
5. 2023-06-05
   soldstatus Closed 868-char remark

   Show marketing remark (868 chars)

   Beautifully maintained Palm Harbor double-wide home. 23 years old and still lovely, almost like new. Home is perfect for a small or growing family. Split master that you will not believe, it is HUGE! Separate bathrooms with Jack & Jill walk in closet. Gorgeous tub to soak in on hard days. Outside of house recently painted; all three toilets recently replaced. Septic serviced 1 year ago. Huge 2 acre lot gives lots of privacy, room for a horse or two and a garden. Property line backs up to a creek, but is fenced from creek to provide safety for little ones. 2 carports, back porch, front porch entries. Beautiful kitchen and cabinetry. You will be able to host many friends & family for get-togethers here in your fantastic new home! Everything is up to code. 100-year flood plain applies only to a small area near the creek. It does not apply to the home.

6. 2023-05-12
   status Pending 868-char remark

   Show marketing remark (868 chars)

   Beautifully maintained Palm Harbor double-wide home. 23 years old and still lovely, almost like new. Home is perfect for a small or growing family. Split master that you will not believe, it is HUGE! Separate bathrooms with Jack & Jill walk in closet. Gorgeous tub to soak in on hard days. Outside of house recently painted; all three toilets recently replaced. Septic serviced 1 year ago. Huge 2 acre lot gives lots of privacy, room for a horse or two and a garden. Property line backs up to a creek, but is fenced from creek to provide safety for little ones. 2 carports, back porch, front porch entries. Beautiful kitchen and cabinetry. You will be able to host many friends & family for get-togethers here in your fantastic new home! Everything is up to code. 100-year flood plain applies only to a small area near the creek. It does not apply to the home.

7. 2023-05-05
   historical Active Option Contract 868-char remark

   Show marketing remark (868 chars)

   Beautifully maintained Palm Harbor double-wide home. 23 years old and still lovely, almost like new. Home is perfect for a small or growing family. Split master that you will not believe, it is HUGE! Separate bathrooms with Jack & Jill walk in closet. Gorgeous tub to soak in on hard days. Outside of house recently painted; all three toilets recently replaced. Septic serviced 1 year ago. Huge 2 acre lot gives lots of privacy, room for a horse or two and a garden. Property line backs up to a creek, but is fenced from creek to provide safety for little ones. 2 carports, back porch, front porch entries. Beautiful kitchen and cabinetry. You will be able to host many friends & family for get-togethers here in your fantastic new home! Everything is up to code. 100-year flood plain applies only to a small area near the creek. It does not apply to the home.

8. 2023-04-14
   listed $279,000 Active 868-char remark

   Show marketing remark (868 chars)

   Beautifully maintained Palm Harbor double-wide home. 23 years old and still lovely, almost like new. Home is perfect for a small or growing family. Split master that you will not believe, it is HUGE! Separate bathrooms with Jack & Jill walk in closet. Gorgeous tub to soak in on hard days. Outside of house recently painted; all three toilets recently replaced. Septic serviced 1 year ago. Huge 2 acre lot gives lots of privacy, room for a horse or two and a garden. Property line backs up to a creek, but is fenced from creek to provide safety for little ones. 2 carports, back porch, front porch entries. Beautiful kitchen and cabinetry. You will be able to host many friends & family for get-togethers here in your fantastic new home! Everything is up to code. 100-year flood plain applies only to a small area near the creek. It does not apply to the home.

9. 2023-04-13
   historical
10. 2023-03-02
    price $279,000
11. 2023-02-06
    listed $299,000 Active
12. 2000-04-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,458 · $288/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,305 · $442/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,847/yr (+$154/mo · 53.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,569
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$3,458
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,965
• − Management: −$1,965
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$8,943
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,146
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,596/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Decatur ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816500
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,504
• Composite: 36.33/100
• National rank: #4691
• State rank: #323 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Fairview

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #901
• US rank: #16172

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Wise County · 49,037 people
• City population: 10,200
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,828
• Household income: $99,866
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 10.0

Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,620 people
• By 2030: 75,858 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 83,908 · +17.2%
• By 2050: 90,717 · +26.7%
• By 2075: 107,583 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 114,996 · +60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 11% Native American 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.0) · D 14.7% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -55.7pp · 2024: -70.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.0 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+69.9 2012: R+67.5 2008: R+55.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.94%
• Current HPI: 325.22
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-02 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-06-22 Price Changed $289,900 NTREIS
• 2025-05-23 Listed $299,999 NTREIS
• 2023-06-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-06-05 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2023-05-12 Pending — NTREIS
• 2023-05-05 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-04-14 Listed $279,000 NTREIS
• 2023-04-13 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-03-02 Price Changed $279,000 NTREIS
• 2023-02-06 Listed $299,000 NTREIS
• 2000-04-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,458 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.