4113 Quail Briar Dr

Bloomingdale, FL 33596

$309,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,277 sqft · Built 1992 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,694/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,625
• Tax + insurance: −$558
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$566
• Net cashflow: $-55/mo
• Annual: $-657/yr
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.76%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $86,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-55 ($-657/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $300k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (13.1% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $269k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#383 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.