406 N Birch St

Wenona, IL 61377

$112,900F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,052 sqft · Built 1915 · SingleFamily · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $951/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$592
• Tax + insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $-29/mo
• Annual: $-349/yr
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.10%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $31,612

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $113k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-29 ($-349/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $109k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $95k (15.8% below list).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $95k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($781 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#906 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Fieldcrest CUSD 6 (rural): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #361 of 620 in IL (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Fieldcrest Primary School (197 students, 0% FRL); Fieldcrest Middle School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #302 of 665 statewide, top 47%, 195 students, 0% FRL); Fieldcrest High School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #218 of 693 statewide, top 35%, 270 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 41% district-wide (41 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marshall County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $113k implies a 151% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.