23 John St

Southampton, NY 11968

$1,750,000B

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,284 sqft · Built 1997 · SingleFamily · Active · 69 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $21,568/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,177
• Tax + insurance: −$2,917
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,529
• Net cashflow: $4,944/mo
• Annual: $59,334/yr
• Cap rate: 9.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.11%
• DSCR: 1.54
• 1% rule: 1.23%
• Cash to close: $490,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $1.75M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($59k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($22k rent vs $1.75M).
• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.65M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.65M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $12k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $52k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#472 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Southampton Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #293 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.6%/yr); 95 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $1.75M implies a 1567% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $490k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 2.8% in Southampton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $21,568/mo this rent would consume 166% of the median local household income ($156k/yr) (locally 274% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.