Talon Plan

Lakeland, FL 33811

$386,990F

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,615 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 194 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,780/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,066
• Tax + insurance: −$657
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$584
• Net cashflow: $-527/mo
• Annual: $-6,321/yr
• Cap rate: 4.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.73%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $110,320

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $387k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-527 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $318k (17.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $278k (28.2% below list).
• It's been on market 194 days — a 12% lower offer ($341k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $278k (28.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: R. Bruce Wagner Elementary School (math 54% / reading 42%, grade D, #1,171 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 946 students, 46% FRL); Southwest Middle School (math 25% / reading 32%, grade F, #482 of 571 statewide, top 85%, 801 students, 63% FRL); George W. Jenkins Senior High (math 25% / reading 49%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 2,451 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 586 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 55d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 61% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 194 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.