Talon Plan · Lakeland, FL 33811

$386,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,615 sqft · SingleFamily · 148 Days on market

Excellent condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Talon offers a welcoming foyer leading to a spacious gathering room, an open kitchen with a large center island, and a café area. Downstairs also features a guest bedroom, full bath, included covered lanai, 2-car garage, and storage under the stairs. Upstairs, enjoy a versatile loft, an Owner's Suite with a private bath and walk-in closet, 3 additional bedrooms, a full bath, and a convenient laundry room.

Key facts

• Cafe area
• Large center island
• Welcoming foyer

Tags

• WELCOMING FOYER
• SPACIOUS GATHERING ROOM
• OPEN KITCHEN
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• CAFE AREA
• GUEST BEDROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $386,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $398,400.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $387k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-500 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $326k (15.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $285k (26.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $285k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: R. Bruce Wagner Elementary School (math 54% / reading 42%, grade D, #1,171 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 946 students, 46% FRL); Southwest Middle School (math 25% / reading 32%, grade F, #482 of 571 statewide, top 85%, 801 students, 63% FRL); George W. Jenkins Senior High (math 25% / reading 49%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 2,451 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 510 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($341k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $285,284 (26.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.37%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $398,400
• List price: $386,990
• Delta: -2.86%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5168 Penelope Trl	0.37mi	5/3.0	2,447 (-6%)	0mo	$363,900	$149	72
5144 Penelope Trl	0.39mi	5/3.0	2,447 (-6%)	1mo	$364,900	$149	70
4947 Cucumber St	0.08mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,262 (-14%)	1mo	$398,400	$176	68
5395 Cloudberry Ave	0.29mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,372 (-9%)	0mo	$386,900	$163	66
4594 Barberry	0.35mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,305 (-12%)	1mo	$356,900	$155	56
5148 Penelope Trl	0.39mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,305 (-12%)	0mo	$360,990	$157	55
5699 Siltstone St	0.48mi	5/3.0	2,983 (+14%)	1mo	$415,000	$139	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-104,689
• Equity at exit: $59,403

10-year hold

• IRR: -46.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.47×
• Total profit: $-164,263
• Equity at exit: $34,446

Cash invested: $111,552 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 58 active · 23 under contract
• Months of supply: 38.7 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $444,950 ($170/sqft)
• Median days on market: 148 d
• This list price: 22% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -10.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33811

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 510
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,853 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,089
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$498 /mo · $5,976/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$599
• Net cashflow: $-500

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,485

Max offer price $326,120

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-224	-5% $-362	+0% $-500	+5% $-637	+10% $-775
Rent	-10% $-725	-5% $-612	+0% $-500	+5% $-387	+10% $-274
Rate	-1.0pp $-299	-0.5pp $-398	base $-500	+0.5pp $-603	+1.0pp $-708

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,600
• Closing costs: $11,952
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5038 Foxglove Cir Lakeland, FL	5.0	3.0	2670	$2,800	$1.05	0d	1	0.31mi
5493 Siltstone St Lakeland, FL	5.0	3.0	2885	$2,600	$0.90	9d	1	0.39mi
5628 Siltstone St Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,300	$1.26	7d	1	0.56mi
5694 Arlington River Dr Lakeland, FL	5.0	3.0	2885	$2,600	$0.90	87d	1	0.70mi
5431 Arlington River Dr Lakeland, FL	4.0	3.0	2077	$2,750	$1.32	9d	1	0.73mi
5463 Arlington River Dr Lakeland, FL	5.0	3.0	2419	$2,800	$1.16	119d	1	0.75mi
4301 Salt Springs Ln Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.5	2585	$2,600	$1.01	98d	1	0.76mi
5978 Shingle Creek Rd Lakeland, FL	5.0	3.0	2616	$2,675	$1.02	73d	1	0.80mi
5978 Shingle Creek Rd Lakeland, FL	5.0	3.0	2616	$2,675	$1.02	80d	1	0.80mi
6265 Dolostone Dr Lakeland, FL	4.0	3.0	2038	$2,895	$1.42	92d	1	0.93mi
3973 Spruce Creek Dr Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1929	$2,200	$1.14	119d	1	1.03mi
3883 White Ibis Rd Lakeland, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1670	$2,570	$1.54	0d	1	1.03mi
5316 White Egret Ln Lakeland, FL	5.0	3.5	3305	$3,400	$1.03	9d	1	1.12mi
3839 Spruce Creek Dr Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1884	$2,314	$1.23	73d	1	1.17mi
5276 White Egret Ln Lakeland, FL	5.0	3.0	2530	$2,761	$1.09	4d	1	1.24mi
3615 Peregrine Way Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.5	2095	$3,200	$1.53	98d	1	1.40mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces2 total parking spaces
• Home design: New construction planTalon plan
• Exterior features: Living area: 2,615

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan name: TalonActive listing

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $386,990 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $386,990 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $386,990 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   days on market $386,990 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $386,990 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $386,990 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $386,990 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $386,990 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $386,990 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $386,990 Active 138 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $386,990 Active 137 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $386,990 Active 136 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $386,990 Active 130 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $386,990 Active 129 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $386,990 Active 128 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $386,990 Active 125 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $386,990 Active 124 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $386,990 Active 123 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $386,990 Active 122 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $386,990 Active 121 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    pricedays on market $386,990 Active 120 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $396,990 Active 119 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $396,990 Active 118 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $396,990 Active 117 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $396,990 Active 116 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $396,990 Active 115 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $396,990 Active 114 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $396,990 Active 113 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $396,990 Active 112 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $396,990 Active 111 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $396,990 Active 110 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $396,990 Active 109 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $396,990 Active 108 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $396,990 Active 106 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $396,990 Active 105 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $396,990 Active 104 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $396,990 Active 103 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $396,990 Active 102 DOM
39. 2026-08-07
    days on market $396,990 Active 101 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $396,990 Active 100 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $396,990 Active 99 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $396,990 Active 98 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $396,990 Active 97 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $396,990 Active 94 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $396,990 Active 93 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $396,990 Active 92 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $396,990 Active 91 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $396,990 Active 89 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $396,990 Active 87 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $396,990 Active 86 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,234
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,317
• − Property taxes: −$5,976
• − Insurance: −$1,992
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,739
• − Management: −$2,739
• − Depreciation: −$11,590
• Taxable loss: −$13,118
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,148
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,846/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a modern and well-maintained interior with a clean and inviting exterior. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior, landscaping improvements, and upgrading kitchen and bathroom fixtures and flooring.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to high-end appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgrading to modern fixtures can enhance the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Flooring — Replacing worn-out flooring with new, high-quality flooring can significantly increase the home's value. ↑
• Both HVAC system — Upgrading the HVAC system can improve energy efficiency and comfort, attracting more potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained and attractive exterior can increase the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary R. Bruce Wagner Elementary School D FL #1,171/2,144 Nat'l #14,249/41,679 Middle Southwest Middle School F FL #482/571 Nat'l #9,410/14,009 High George W. Jenkins Senior High F FL #340/667 Nat'l #9,001/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 77/100

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland, FL
• County: Polk County · 752,975 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,472
• Household income: $90,263
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.57%
• Current HPI: 309.0061
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.19%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces2 total parking spaces
• Home design: New construction planTalon plan
• Exterior features: Living area: 2,615

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan name: TalonActive listing