2056 Ca-154 #6

Ballard, CA 93460

$489,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Built 2024 · Manufactured · Active · 71 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,550/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,564
• Tax + insurance: −$815
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,165
• Net cashflow: $1,005/mo
• Annual: $12,059/yr
• Cap rate: 8.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.81%
• DSCR: 1.39
• 1% rule: 1.13%
• Cash to close: $136,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $489k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $489k).
• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($460k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $460k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,005 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, crime A-; Watch: housing C-, schools F, amenities F.
• College Elementary (town): math 50% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #234 of 1,400 in CA (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.