2056 Ca-154 #6 · Ballard, CA 93460

$489,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured · 71 Days on market

Built 2024

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautiful 2024 new manufactured home in the desirable Rancho Oneonta Mobile Home Park, set in a quiet country setting near vineyards. This spacious home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with an open-concept layout connecting the living, dining, and kitchen areas. The modern kitchen includes sleek appliances and ample storage, while generously sized bedrooms and updated bathrooms provide comfort and functionality. Enjoy outdoor living with a private patio and covered porch, plus a covered carport with a storage shed. Rancho Oneonta offers a well-maintained community and exceptionally low space rent, making this an outstanding and affordable opportunity in a sought-after lo

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Covered carport
• Private patio

Tags

• NEW MANUFACTURED HOME
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MODERN KITCHEN
• PRIVATE PATIO
• COVERED PORCH
• COVERED CARPORT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Has heating (forced air); Land lease: $407
• Home design: Manufactured home; Model: Victory; Make: Skyline; New (year built listed as New); Single-story (all main rooms listed on first level)
• Construction: 27 feet by 60 feet (mobile dimensions)
• Exterior features: Composition/shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range/oven; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first level); Bedroom 2 (first level); Bedroom 3 (first level)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Five total rooms; Energy Star appliance(s)
• Laundry & utility: Gas hookup for laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $489k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $489k).
• Recommended offer: $460k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,005 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, crime A-; Watch: housing C-, schools F, amenities F.
• College Elementary (town): math 50% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #234 of 1,400 in CA (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($460k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $459,660 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.81%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $286,740
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2056 W Highway 154 #10	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-11%)	9mo	$255,000	$177	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-15,154
• Equity at exit: $72,911

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $69,557
• Equity at exit: $42,280

Cash invested: $136,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93460

• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,550 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,564
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$611 /mo · $7,335/yr
• Insurance: −$204
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,165
• Net cashflow: $1,005

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,278

Max offer price $489,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $122,250
• Closing costs: $14,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $489,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $489,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $489,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $489,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $489,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $489,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $489,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $489,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $489,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $489,000 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $489,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $489,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $489,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $489,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $489,000 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-04-03
    listed $489,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $66,596
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,392
• − Property taxes: −$7,335
• − Insurance: −$2,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,328
• − Management: −$5,328
• − Depreciation: −$14,225
• Taxable income: $4,544
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,091
• After-tax cash flow: $10,968/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: College Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0609330
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $88,496
• Composite: 54.36/100
• National rank: #2919
• State rank: #234 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Ballard

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1005
• US rank: #24868

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,425

Population outlook (Santa Barbara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,679 people
• By 2030: 505,323 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 545,783 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 584,263 · +20.5%
• By 2075: 682,586 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 723,188 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 14% Tagalog/Filipino 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Barbara

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.7) · D 61.8% · R 35.1% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.8pp toward D · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 26.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.7 2020: D+32.1 2016: D+28.2 2012: D+17.1 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -250.90%
• Current HPI: 322.2953
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Listed $489,000 NSBCRMLS