20415 Ruby Industrial Rd

Carlos, MD 21543

$89,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,580 sqft · Built 1910 · SingleFamily · Pending · 190 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,085/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax + insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $242/mo
• Annual: $2,909/yr
• Cap rate: 9.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.67%
• DSCR: 1.52
• 1% rule: 1.22%
• Cash to close: $24,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $89k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $242 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $78k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($615 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#340 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Allegany County Public Schools (other): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #18 of 24 in MD (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Frost Elementary (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #146 of 860 statewide, top 18%, 236 students, 43% FRL); Mount Savage Middle (math 15% / reading 38%, grade F, #86 of 225 statewide, top 40%, 425 students, 54% FRL); Mountain Ridge High School (math 32% / reading 72%, grade D+, #100 of 222 statewide, top 47%, 736 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 22% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Allegany County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Allegany County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.