4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,895 sqft ·
Built 2008
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 34 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,792/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,620
Tax + insurance
−$209
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$376
Net cashflow
$-413/mo
Annual
$-4,962/yr
Cap rate
4.69%
Cash-on-cash
-5.73%
DSCR
0.74
1% rule
0.58%
Cash to close
$86,520
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $309k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-413 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (23.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (42.0% below list).
It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $179k (42.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#117 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
Tuscaloosa County (suburban): math 21% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #47 of 129 in AL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Vance Elementary School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #367 of 627 statewide, top 60%, 499 students, 69% FRL); Brookwood High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #118 of 305 statewide, top 45%, 1,078 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 45% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).
Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-38B0KKAXAHV3HN
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29