10464 Nicole St · Vance, AL 35490

$309,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,895 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 2008 Est $415k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Have you been searching for your own oasis convenient to Tuscaloosa and Birmingham? This one level, all brick home with a lake view and storm shelter would be incredible for you! This home offers a fireplace, vaulted ceilings, range hood, privacy fence that backs up to woods that are full of wildlife as well as an oversized two car garage with plenty of extra storage. There is even a large screened in porch! Schedule a showing today to see all that Oakridge Manor has to offer and make sure to check out the lake that you have access to!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2008
• Listed 34 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $309k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-413 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (23.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (42.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (42.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#117 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Tuscaloosa County (suburban): math 21% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #47 of 129 in AL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Vance Elementary School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #367 of 627 statewide, top 60%, 499 students, 69% FRL); Brookwood High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #118 of 305 statewide, top 45%, 1,078 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 45% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,180 (42.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.73%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 14.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $415,005
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16670 Laney Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,887 (-0%)	3mo	$319,000	$169	79
10370 Evergreen Church Rd	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,772 (-6%)	10mo	$387,500	$219	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $141,793
• Equity at exit: $278,372

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.06×
• Total profit: $437,946
• Equity at exit: $600,319

Cash invested: $86,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35490

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 14.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,792 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $958/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $-413

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,315

Max offer price $235,956

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,250
• Closing costs: $9,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11489 Jace Ave Vance, AL	3.0	2.0	1332	$1,250	$0.94	3d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2022-10-05
   soldstatus $304,900 Closed 541-char remark

   Show marketing remark (541 chars)

   Have you been searching for your own oasis convenient to Tuscaloosa and Birmingham? This one level, all brick home with a lake view and storm shelter would be incredible for you! This home offers a fireplace, vaulted ceilings, range hood, privacy fence that backs up to woods that are full of wildlife as well as an oversized two car garage with plenty of extra storage. There is even a large screened in porch! Schedule a showing today to see all that Oakridge Manor has to offer and make sure to check out the lake that you have access to!

2. 2022-10-05
   soldstatus $304,900

   Show marketing remark (541 chars)

   Have you been searching for your own oasis convenient to Tuscaloosa and Birmingham? This one level, all brick home with a lake view and storm shelter would be incredible for you! This home offers a fireplace, vaulted ceilings, range hood, privacy fence that backs up to woods that are full of wildlife as well as an oversized two car garage with plenty of extra storage. There is even a large screened in porch! Schedule a showing today to see all that Oakridge Manor has to offer and make sure to check out the lake that you have access to!

3. 2022-09-19
   status Pending
4. 2022-08-23
   status Pending 541-char remark

   Show marketing remark (541 chars)

   Have you been searching for your own oasis convenient to Tuscaloosa and Birmingham? This one level, all brick home with a lake view and storm shelter would be incredible for you! This home offers a fireplace, vaulted ceilings, range hood, privacy fence that backs up to woods that are full of wildlife as well as an oversized two car garage with plenty of extra storage. There is even a large screened in porch! Schedule a showing today to see all that Oakridge Manor has to offer and make sure to check out the lake that you have access to!

5. 2022-08-16
   listed $309,000 Active 541-char remark

   Show marketing remark (541 chars)

   Have you been searching for your own oasis convenient to Tuscaloosa and Birmingham? This one level, all brick home with a lake view and storm shelter would be incredible for you! This home offers a fireplace, vaulted ceilings, range hood, privacy fence that backs up to woods that are full of wildlife as well as an oversized two car garage with plenty of extra storage. There is even a large screened in porch! Schedule a showing today to see all that Oakridge Manor has to offer and make sure to check out the lake that you have access to!

6. 2022-08-16
   listed $309,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (541 chars)

   Have you been searching for your own oasis convenient to Tuscaloosa and Birmingham? This one level, all brick home with a lake view and storm shelter would be incredible for you! This home offers a fireplace, vaulted ceilings, range hood, privacy fence that backs up to woods that are full of wildlife as well as an oversized two car garage with plenty of extra storage. There is even a large screened in porch! Schedule a showing today to see all that Oakridge Manor has to offer and make sure to check out the lake that you have access to!

7. 2021-04-09
   soldstatus $290,000 581-char remark

   Show marketing remark (581 chars)

   Beautiful home in highly desired Vance school zone! This immaculately kept 4 bedroom 2.5 bathroom home is ready for your family to move in TODAY!! Many upgrades that make this home extra special include luxury wooden privacy fence, storm shelter, plus sized laundry room, gas log fireplace, gorgeous view of the woods from the extra large covered patio, neighborhood lake, storage galore, plus many more features! Just minutes from Mercedes and Tuscaloosa make this home perfectly located for those who love the peace of country living and the convenience of city life! Call today!

8. 2021-01-16
   listed $290,000 581-char remark

   Show marketing remark (581 chars)

   Beautiful home in highly desired Vance school zone! This immaculately kept 4 bedroom 2.5 bathroom home is ready for your family to move in TODAY!! Many upgrades that make this home extra special include luxury wooden privacy fence, storm shelter, plus sized laundry room, gas log fireplace, gorgeous view of the woods from the extra large covered patio, neighborhood lake, storage galore, plus many more features! Just minutes from Mercedes and Tuscaloosa make this home perfectly located for those who love the peace of country living and the convenience of city life! Call today!

9. 2020-11-11
   listed $299,000
10. 2017-05-31
    soldstatus $230,000
11. 2017-04-25
    listed $235,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $958 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,267 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: +$309/yr (+$26/mo · 32.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 59% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,502
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,309
• − Property taxes: −$958
• − Insurance: −$1,545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,720
• − Management: −$1,720
• − Depreciation: −$8,989
• Taxable loss: −$10,740
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,577
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,384/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tuscaloosa County
• NCES district ID: 0103390
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,000
• Composite: 28.88/100
• National rank: #6641
• State rank: #47 of 129 in AL

Livability — Vance

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #117
• US rank: #12508

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Tuscaloosa County · 206,491 people
• City population: 4,457
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• Population (ZIP): 4,457
• Household income: $87,813
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5.0

Population outlook (Tuscaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,293 people
• By 2030: 240,551 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 263,856 · +15.6%
• By 2050: 286,491 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 335,783 · +47.1%
• By 2100: 370,520 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 4% Two or more races 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: French 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 7% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuscaloosa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.4% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.0pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+19.5 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.30%
• Current HPI: 222.8671
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+29.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2022-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $304,900 Public Records
• 2022-10-05 Sold (MLS) $304,900 WAMLS
• 2022-09-19 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2022-08-23 Pending — WAMLS
• 2022-08-16 Listed $309,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2022-08-16 Listed $309,000 WAMLS
• 2021-04-09 Sold (MLS) $290,000 WAMLS
• 2021-01-16 Listed $290,000 WAMLS
• 2020-11-11 Listed $299,000 WAMLS
• 2017-05-31 Sold (MLS) $230,000 WAMLS
• 2017-04-25 Listed $235,900 WAMLS

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $958 · -45.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.