204 N Valley Forge Rd Unit 4-A

Lansdale, PA 19446

$235,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 945 sqft · Built 1985 · Condo · Active · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,941/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax + insurance: −$385
• HOA: −$200
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $-284/mo
• Annual: $-3,405/yr
• Cap rate: 4.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.17%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $65,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $235k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-284 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (21.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (17.4% below list).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $185k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#31 in PA, #170 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• North Penn SD (suburban): math 48% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #76 of 539 in PA (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Oak Park El Sch (math 38% / reading 54%, grade D-, #797 of 1,518 statewide, top 53%, 536 students, 59% FRL); Penndale Ms (math 32% / reading 63%, grade C-, #156 of 512 statewide, top 32%, 1,208 students, 43% FRL); North Penn Shs (math 78% / reading 50%, grade B-, #67 of 437 statewide, top 15%, 3,184 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 45% FRL vs 20% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 190 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,936 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (530 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $235k implies a 213% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.4% in Lansdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.