204 N Valley Forge Rd Unit 4-A · Lansdale, PA 19446

$235,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 945 sqft · Condo public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1985 $249/sqft · 26% below area Est $318k · 26% under $200/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

DO NOT MISS this single story 2 bed 1 bath townhome in the North Penn School District. The first thing you'll notice about the neighborhood is the "off the beaten path" feel when you first arrive; this is a very small condo association (around 15 homes) and its nestled into a no outlet back area of Lansdale, giving the grounds a very comfortable, private feel. Walking in through the front door of house #4, you are greeted by a large sunny living room with hardwood floors and ceiling fan. After glancing in the coat closet, you immediately notice the open floor plan whereby the living room flows into the dining room and kitchen area. The dining area has the same hardwood, chandelier

Key facts

• $200 HOA
• Built 1985
• Listed 51 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly condo/coop fee of $200; HOA fees include trash, lawn maintenance, snow removal, exterior building maintenance, common area maintenance, and insurance

Exterior

• Parking: Parking lot
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service for heating, cooling, and hot water
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Located in The Pines; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Frame construction; Block foundation; Architectural shingle roof; Pets allowed (cats and dogs)
• Exterior features: No tidal water; Bus stop less than 1 mile away; Directions available

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on main level
• Flooring: Hardwood floors; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on main level; 1 full bathroom total
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Electric hot water
• Interior features: Unfinished basement; Assessor-provided living area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-284 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (21.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.4% in Lansdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#31 in PA, #170 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• North Penn SD (suburban): math 48% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #76 of 539 in PA (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Oak Park El Sch (math 38% / reading 54%, grade D-, #797 of 1,518 statewide, top 53%, 536 students, 59% FRL); Penndale Ms (math 32% / reading 63%, grade C-, #156 of 512 statewide, top 32%, 1,208 students, 43% FRL); North Penn Shs (math 78% / reading 50%, grade B-, #67 of 437 statewide, top 15%, 3,184 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 45% FRL vs 20% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 190 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,936 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (530 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $235k implies a 213% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,879 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.17%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $317,874
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: -26.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-55,846
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-70,655
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 19446

• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,941 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$287 /mo · $3,442/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$200
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $-284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,300

Max offer price $184,879

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-151	-5% $-217	+0% $-284	+5% $-350	+10% $-417
Rent	-10% $-437	-5% $-360	+0% $-284	+5% $-207	+10% $-130
Rate	-1.0pp $-165	-0.5pp $-224	base $-284	+0.5pp $-345	+1.0pp $-407

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
501 N Cannon Ave Unit A203 Lansdale, PA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,895	$2.23	3d	1	0.35mi
501 N Cannon Ave Unit B105 Lansdale, PA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,995	$2.35	3d	1	0.35mi
1158 Welsh Rd Lansdale, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	880	$1,880	$2.14	3d	19	0.37mi
325 Madison St Lansdale, PA	2.0	1.0–2.0	886	$2,320	$2.62	3d	8	0.47mi
311 W Main St Lansdale, PA	1.0	1.0	800	$1,700	$2.12	6d	1	0.54mi
34 W 5th St Lansdale, PA	1.0	1.0	675	$1,500	$2.22	3d	1	0.68mi
359 Whites Rd Unit C Lansdale, PA	2.0	1.5	864	$2,000	$2.31	23d	1	0.75mi
319 Whites Rd Lansdale, PA	2.0	1.0	875	$1,815	$2.07	3d	3	0.78mi
38 Jenkins Ave Lansdale, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0	713	$1,681	$2.36	3d	2	0.84mi
117 S Broad St Lansdale, PA	2.0	1.0–2.0	811	$2,395	$2.95	3d	14	0.86mi
200 S Line St Lansdale, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1077	$2,299	$2.13	21d	6	1.03mi
333 S Line St Lansdale, PA	2.0	1.0	968	$1,900	$1.96	23d	1	1.18mi
100 Snyder Rd Lansdale, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$1,918	$1.90	0d	20	1.24mi
416 W Vine St Hatfield, PA	1.0	1.0	625	$1,450	$2.32	3d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $200 · $2,400/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $235,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $235,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $245,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $245,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $245,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,990 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,990 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    status Active 1648-char remark
17. 2026-05-05
    historical Active Under Contract 1648-char remark
18. 2026-04-25
    listed $250,000 Active 1648-char remark
19. 2026-04-23
    historical $250,000 1648-char remark
20. 1992-01-23
    soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,442 · $287/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,577 · $298/mo
• Expected delta: +$136/yr (+$11/mo · 3.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,292
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$3,442
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,863
• − Management: −$1,863
• − HOA: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$7,452
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,788
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,616/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Penn SD
• NCES district ID: 4217280
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $76,866
• Composite: 51.5/100
• National rank: #1722
• State rank: #76 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lansdale

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #170

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lansdale, PA
• County: Montgomery County · 712,331 people
• City population: 61,848
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• Population (ZIP): 61,848
• Household income: $106,310
• Rent vs Own: 34.8% rent · 65.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1930.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 856,074 people
• By 2030: 870,887 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 891,195 · +4.1%
• By 2050: 896,417 · +4.7%
• By 2075: 903,212 · +5.5%
• By 2100: 843,240 · -1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Asian 14% Black 7% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Spanish 2% Korean 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.8) · D 60.9% · R 38.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.0pp toward D · 2008: 20.8pp · 2024: 22.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.8 2020: D+26.3 2016: D+21.1 2012: D+14.3 2008: D+20.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -340.90%
• Current HPI: 279.3557
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.08%
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+213.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $235,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $245,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $249,990 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-11 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-05 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-25 Listed $250,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-23 Coming Soon $250,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1992-01-23 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,442 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.