4712 Arrot Rd

Bemus Point, NY 14712

$349,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,644 sqft · Built 1949 · SingleFamily · Active · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,856/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax + insurance: −$500
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $-869/mo
• Annual: $-10,426/yr
• Cap rate: 3.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.64%
• DSCR: 0.53
• 1% rule: 0.53%
• Cash to close: $97,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-869 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (43.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (46.9% below list).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $186k (46.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#539 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Bemus Point Central School District (rural): math 65% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #238 of 755 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Bemus Point Elementary School (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 283 students, 35% FRL); Maple Grove Junior/Senior High School (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C-, #912 of 1,100 statewide, top 85%, 319 students, 30% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $210k; list at $350k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 3.3% vs local median 1.6% in Bemus Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.