4712 Arrot Rd · Bemus Point, NY 14712

$349,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,644 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1949 0.90 ac lot $213/sqft · 31% below area Est $509k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Cash flow +4.7/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Amazing opportunity for owner occupy or investment/rental potential with lake views, just minutes from Bemus Point and Chautauqua Institution. 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths between the main house, guest house and bonus room over garage provides a unique layout with many options. House being sold furnished. Boat slips available close by at Long Point.

Key facts

• Lake views
• Boat slips available
• Bonus room

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• GUEST HOUSE
• BONUS ROOM
• BOAT SLIPS AVAILABLE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Two garage spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Sewer connected; Circuit breaker electric service
• Home design: Two stories; Existing construction
• Construction: Wood siding; Metal roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Irregular residential lot; Road frontage on a city street and main thoroughfare

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Living/dining room; Sliding glass door(s); Sliding doors; Furnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-869 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (43.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (46.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (46.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.3% vs local median 1.6% in Bemus Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#539 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Bemus Point Central School District (rural): math 65% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #238 of 755 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Bemus Point Elementary School (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 283 students, 35% FRL); Maple Grove Junior/Senior High School (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C-, #912 of 1,100 statewide, top 85%, 319 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $210k; list at $350k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $185,622 (46.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.64%
• DSCR: 0.53
• GRM: 15.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $508,508
• List price: $349,900
• Delta: -31.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5471 Broadway Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,826 (+11%)	8mo	$325,555	$178	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $135,206
• Equity at exit: $315,218

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.51×
• Total profit: $441,629
• Equity at exit: $679,779

Cash invested: $97,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14712

• Home prices YoY: 15.3%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 15.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,856 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$355 /mo · $4,254/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $-869

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,956

Max offer price $196,418

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-671	-5% $-770	+0% $-869	+5% $-968	+10% $-1,067
Rent	-10% $-1,015	-5% $-942	+0% $-869	+5% $-796	+10% $-722
Rate	-1.0pp $-693	-0.5pp $-780	base $-869	+0.5pp $-959	+1.0pp $-1,052

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,475
• Closing costs: $10,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $349,900 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $349,900 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $349,900 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,900 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,900 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,900 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,900 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $349,900 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $349,900 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $349,900 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $349,900 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $349,900 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $349,900 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $349,900 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $349,900 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $349,900 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $349,900 Active 18 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $349,900 Active 17 DOM
19. 2026-05-13
    listed $359,900 Active 350-char remark
20. 2025-12-13
    historical
21. 2025-12-08
    historical
22. 2025-08-25
    price $349,900
23. 2025-07-16
    price $369,000
24. 2025-04-30
    listed $384,900 Active
25. 2024-10-18
    historical
26. 2024-08-28
    price $386,000
27. 2024-04-13
    listed $389,900 Active
28. 2023-11-16
    historical
29. 2023-09-12
    listed $389,900 Active
30. 2021-08-03
    soldstatus $210,000 Closed Sale or Rented
31. 2021-08-03
    soldstatus $210,000
32. 2021-06-23
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show
33. 2021-05-20
    price $239,900
34. 2021-04-01
    listed $259,900 Active
35. 2018-06-19
    soldstatus $91,315

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,254 · $355/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,084 · $424/mo
• Expected delta: +$829/yr (+$69/mo · 19.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,275
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,600
• − Property taxes: −$4,254
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,782
• − Management: −$1,782
• − Depreciation: −$10,179
• Taxable loss: −$17,072
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,097
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,329/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bemus Point Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3604530
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,968
• Composite: 55.15/100
• National rank: #2753
• State rank: #238 of 755 in NY

Livability — Bemus Point

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #539
• US rank: #9687

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,079

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 48.79%
• Current HPI: 368.206
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+283.2% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $349,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $359,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-12-13 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-12-08 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-08-25 Price Changed $349,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-07-16 Price Changed $369,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-04-30 Listed $384,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-10-18 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2024-08-28 Price Changed $386,000 UNYREIS
• 2024-04-13 Listed $389,900 UNYREIS
• 2023-11-16 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2023-09-12 Listed $389,900 UNYREIS
• 2021-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records
• 2021-08-03 Sold (MLS) $210,000 UNYREIS
• 2021-06-23 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2021-05-20 Price Changed $239,900 UNYREIS
• 2021-04-01 Listed $259,900 UNYREIS
• 2018-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $91,315 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,254 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.