1749 S Valley Vw

Ridgecrest, CA 93555

$259,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,115 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Active · 189 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,897/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax + insurance: −$377
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $-237/mo
• Annual: $-2,839/yr
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.91%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $72,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $259k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-237 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (16.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (26.8% below list).
• It's been on market 189 days — a 12% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $190k (26.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#243 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living D+, crime F.
• Sierra Sands Unified (town): math 25% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #294 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Faller Elementary (math 21% / reading 37%, grade F, #891 of 1,571 statewide, top 57%, 538 students, 48% FRL); Murray Middle (math 26% / reading 41%, grade F, #197 of 498 statewide, top 40%, 690 students, 46% FRL); Burroughs High (math 37% / reading 70%, grade C-, #281 of 1,170 statewide, top 24%, 1,479 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 332 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 9→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.0% in Ridgecrest — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 189 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.