644 Blue Jay Dr

East Dublin, GA 31027

$50,000B-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Under Contract · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,645/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $984/mo
• Annual: $11,804/yr
• Cap rate: 29.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 84.32%
• DSCR: 4.75
• 1% rule: 3.29%
• Cash to close: $14,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $984 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $49k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#326 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Laurens County (rural): math 45% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #42 of 174 in GA (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: East Laurens Middle School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #147 of 470 statewide, top 33%, 552 students, 85% FRL); East Laurens High School (math 27% / reading 22%, grade F, #184 of 424 statewide, top 48%, 648 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 55% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 55 units permitted in Laurens County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Laurens County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 29.9% vs local median 5.6% in East Dublin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.