644 Blue Jay Dr · East Dublin, GA 31027

$50,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2000 1.27 ac lot ↓ 9% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

1

Key facts

• Historic downtown
• Large kitchen
• Convenient location

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• LARGE KITCHEN
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• HISTORIC DOWNTOWN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $984 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.9% vs local median 5.6% in East Dublin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#326 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Laurens County (rural): math 45% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #42 of 174 in GA (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: East Laurens Middle School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #147 of 470 statewide, top 33%, 552 students, 85% FRL); East Laurens High School (math 27% / reading 22%, grade F, #184 of 424 statewide, top 48%, 648 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 55% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 55 units permitted in Laurens County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Laurens County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,250 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 84.32%
• DSCR: 4.75
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 84.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.90×
• Total profit: $54,556
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 87.9%
• Equity multiple: 10.16×
• Total profit: $128,207
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31027

• Home prices YoY: -7.6%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,645 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $393/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $984

Break-even live

Break-even rent $400

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 35%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,012	-5% $998	+0% $984	+5% $970	+10% $955
Rent	-10% $854	-5% $919	+0% $984	+5% $1,049	+10% $1,114
Rate	-1.0pp $1,009	-0.5pp $996	base $984	+0.5pp $971	+1.0pp $958

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-19
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-03-02
   status Back On Market
3. 2026-03-02
   historical
4. 2026-02-27
   listed $50,000 New
5. 2025-12-07
   status Under Contract
6. 2025-10-21
   listed $55,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $393 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $460 · $38/mo
• Expected delta: +$67/yr (+$6/mo · 16.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,739
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$393
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,579
• − Management: −$1,579
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $11,682
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,804
• After-tax cash flow: $9,000/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Laurens County
• NCES district ID: 1301890
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $38,220
• Composite: 35.06/100
• National rank: #5030
• State rank: #42 of 174 in GA

Livability — East Dublin

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #326
• US rank: #17266

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,879

Population outlook (Laurens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,685 people
• By 2030: 44,056 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 40,270 · -11.9%
• By 2050: 36,094 · -21.0%
• By 2075: 26,275 · -42.5%
• By 2100: 17,160 · -62.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Laurens

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.7) · D 33.5% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -21.5pp · 2024: -32.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.7 2020: R+28.2 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+22.7 2008: R+21.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.67%
• Current HPI: 202.153
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-03-02 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $50,000 GAMLS
• 2025-12-07 Pending — GAMLS
• 2025-10-21 Listed $55,000 GAMLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $393 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.