9459 Mission Gorge Rd #121

Santee, CA 92071

$209,500C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 784 sqft · Built 2001 · Manufactured · Active · 149 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,452/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,099
• Tax + insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $698/mo
• Annual: $8,379/yr
• Cap rate: 10.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.28%
• DSCR: 1.64
• 1% rule: 1.17%
• Cash to close: $58,660

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $698 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $184k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#361 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities D, cost of living F.
• Santee (suburban): math 46% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #130 of 517 in CA (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 199 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $210k implies a 210% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 2.7% in Santee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.