9459 Mission Gorge Rd #121 · Santee, CA 92071

$209,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 149 Days on market

Built 2001 9.75 ac lot Est $142k · 48% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy 2 Bedroom/2 Bath home located in a quiet 55+ community. Home features a spacious living area, master bedroom with larger closet and full size laundry room. Master bathroom has a walk-in shower, second bathroom has a bathtub/shower combination. Community is pet friendly and has frequent craft and activity gatherings, along with community events. Located central to shopping and restaurants.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Updated kitchen
• Bar counter top area

Tags

• ALL APPLIANCES INCLUDED
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• BAR COUNTER TOP AREA
• LAMINATED WOOD-LOOK FLOORING
• UPDATED KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size source: Assessor's data; Living area source: Assessor's data
• Financial info: Land lease amount: $701
• HOA & community: Senior community; Park name: Santee Mobile Estates; Manager approval required; Pets allowed (dogs and cats; size and number limits apply); Land lease

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; 2 carport spaces; Located in Santee Mobile Estates
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Mobile home (Champion model); Single-story; Entry at front door; Mobile home remains on property
• Construction: Estimated mobile dimensions: 20' x 40'; Year built per assessor
• Exterior features: Community heated gunite pool; Dog park; Lot is level with street; Lot is generally flat

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling
• Interior features: One-level home; Front door entry; Primary bedroom on main floor; All bedrooms on ground floor; Living room
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Dryer included; Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Inside laundry room; Individual laundry room / utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $698 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $184k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 2.7% in Santee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#361 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities D, cost of living F.
• Santee (suburban): math 46% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #130 of 517 in CA (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 199 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $210k implies a 210% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.28%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $141,904
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9459 Mission Gorge Rd #124	0.00mi	2/2.0	800 (+2%)	17mo	$145,000	$181	82
9459 Mission Gorge Rd #68	0.05mi	2/1.0	720 (-8%)	3mo	$110,000	$153	77
9459 Mission Gorge Rd Spc 41	0.05mi	2/1.0	872 (+11%)	4mo	$140,000	$161	71
9459 Mission Gorge Rd #119	0.05mi	2/2.0	880 (+12%)	11mo	$235,000	$267	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $5,237
• Equity at exit: $31,237

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $41,039
• Equity at exit: $18,114

Cash invested: $58,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92071

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,452 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,099
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $637/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $698

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,568

Max offer price $209,500

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $817	-5% $758	+0% $698	+5% $639	+10% $580
Rent	-10% $504	-5% $601	+0% $698	+5% $795	+10% $892
Rate	-1.0pp $804	-0.5pp $751	base $698	+0.5pp $644	+1.0pp $589

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,375
• Closing costs: $6,285
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9525 Mission Gorge Rd Santee, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	901	$2,195	$2.44	0d	4	0.16mi
9249 Carlton Oaks Dr Santee, CA	1.0	1.0	594	$1,715	$2.89	0d	1	0.61mi
9855 Mission Greens Ct #3 Santee, CA	2.0	1.0	903	$2,495	$2.76	17d	1	0.66mi
9205 Carlton Oaks Dr Santee, CA	1.0	1.0	594	$1,925	$3.24	0d	1	0.68mi
8842 Tamberly Ct Santee, CA	2.0	1.5	903	$2,695	$2.98	3d	1	0.83mi
320 Town Center Pkwy Santee, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1081	$2,942	$2.72	0d	4	0.87mi
8609 Arminda Cir #13 Santee, CA	2.0	2.0	984	$3,000	$3.05	0d	1	1.01mi
8605 Arminda Cir Santee, CA	2.0	2.0	958	$2,650	$2.77	0d	1	1.02mi
8009 Calle Fanita Santee, CA	2.0	1.5	1024	$2,995	$2.92	0d	1	1.05mi
10233 Mission Gorge Rd Santee, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0	942	$2,195	$2.33	0d	1	1.07mi
9705 Carlton Hills Blvd Santee, CA	1.0	1.0	565	$2,008	$3.55	0d	4	1.24mi
9700 Magnolia Park Dr Santee, CA	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1017	$2,795	$2.75	0d	1	1.26mi
8866 Donna Jean Ln Santee, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,700	$2.62	0d	1	1.37mi
8712 N Magnolia Ave Santee, CA	2.0	2.0	1060	$2,875	$2.71	0d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $209,500 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,500 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,500 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,500 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,500 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,500 Active 141 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $209,500 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $214,500 Active 137 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $214,500 Active 136 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $214,500 Active 135 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $214,500 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $214,500 Active 131 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $214,500 Active 130 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $214,500 Active 129 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $214,500 Active 128 DOM
16. 2026-04-03
    price $214,500
17. 2026-03-29
    price $219,500
18. 2026-03-19
    price $229,500
19. 2026-02-20
    price $239,500
20. 2026-01-23
    listed $250,000 Active
21. 2016-08-04
    soldstatus $67,500 Sold 396-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    Cozy 2 Bedroom/2 Bath home located in a quiet 55+ community. Home features a spacious living area, master bedroom with larger closet and full size laundry room. Master bathroom has a walk-in shower, second bathroom has a bathtub/shower combination. Community is pet friendly and has frequent craft and activity gatherings, along with community events. Located central to shopping and restaurants.

22. 2016-06-29
    status Pending 396-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    Cozy 2 Bedroom/2 Bath home located in a quiet 55+ community. Home features a spacious living area, master bedroom with larger closet and full size laundry room. Master bathroom has a walk-in shower, second bathroom has a bathtub/shower combination. Community is pet friendly and has frequent craft and activity gatherings, along with community events. Located central to shopping and restaurants.

23. 2016-06-01
    price $79,900 396-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    Cozy 2 Bedroom/2 Bath home located in a quiet 55+ community. Home features a spacious living area, master bedroom with larger closet and full size laundry room. Master bathroom has a walk-in shower, second bathroom has a bathtub/shower combination. Community is pet friendly and has frequent craft and activity gatherings, along with community events. Located central to shopping and restaurants.

24. 2016-06-01
    listed $79,900,000 Active 396-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    Cozy 2 Bedroom/2 Bath home located in a quiet 55+ community. Home features a spacious living area, master bedroom with larger closet and full size laundry room. Master bathroom has a walk-in shower, second bathroom has a bathtub/shower combination. Community is pet friendly and has frequent craft and activity gatherings, along with community events. Located central to shopping and restaurants.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $637 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,592 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$955/yr (+$80/mo · 150.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥98°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,426
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,735
• − Property taxes: −$637
• − Insurance: −$1,048
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,354
• − Management: −$2,354
• − Depreciation: −$6,095
• Taxable income: $5,204
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,249
• After-tax cash flow: $7,130/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santee
• NCES district ID: 0635880
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $73,452
• Composite: 45.0/100
• National rank: #2698
• State rank: #130 of 517 in CA

Livability — Santee

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #361
• US rank: #12272

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santee, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 59,590
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 59,590
• Household income: $113,618
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1719.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 16% Asian 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 8% Arabic 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -607.00%
• Current HPI: 393.1781
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.85%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-99.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $214,500 CRMLS
• 2026-03-29 Price Changed $219,500 CRMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $229,500 CRMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $239,500 CRMLS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $250,000 CRMLS
• 2016-08-04 Sold (MLS) $67,500 SDMLS
• 2016-06-29 Pending — SDMLS
• 2016-06-01 Price Changed $79,900 SDMLS
• 2016-06-01 Listed $79,900,000 SDMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2013): $637 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.