7837 S Mallard St

Willow Valley, AZ 86440

$139,000C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 500 sqft · Built 1961 · Manufactured · Active · 69 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,268/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax + insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $177/mo
• Annual: $2,123/yr
• Cap rate: 7.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.46%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $38,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $177 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (8.8% below list).
• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $127k (8.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#170 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Colorado River Union High School District (4381) (town): math 13% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #213 of 249 in AZ (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Camp Mohave Elementary School (math 29% / reading 40%, grade F, #471 of 1,109 statewide, top 44%, 375 students, 66% FRL); Mohave Valley Junior High School (math 28% / reading 31%, grade F, #84 of 218 statewide, top 41%, 448 students, 55% FRL); River Valley High School (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #287 of 381 statewide, top 76%, 545 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 223 active listings in the ZIP; 2,543 units permitted in Mohave County in 2024 (33 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mohave County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 8 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $139k implies a 248% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.