4548 Lonesome Pine Dr

Montgomery, AL 36108

$70,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,160 sqft · Built 1987 · SingleFamily · Pending · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,340/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $597/mo
• Annual: $7,159/yr
• Cap rate: 16.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.53%
• DSCR: 2.63
• 1% rule: 1.91%
• Cash to close: $19,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $597 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($484 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#138 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, crime F.
• Montgomery County (urban): math 9% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #106 of 129 in AL (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 460 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (37 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $55k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.5% vs local median 6.0% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.