4548 Lonesome Pine Dr · Montgomery, AL 36108

$70,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,160 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1987 9,583 sqft lot Est $72k · at est. ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

This home is a beautiful 3 bedroom 2 bath home in a developed community. It can be a starter home or an investment property! The lot size of this home and the wood burning fireplace is a must see! Outside storage unit, washer, dryer and kitchen appliances will convey with the home.

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1987

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $597 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Cap rate 16.5% vs local median 6.0% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#138 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, crime F.
• Montgomery County (urban): math 9% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #106 of 129 in AL (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 460 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (37 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($484 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $55k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.53%
• DSCR: 2.63
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $71,920
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4513 Lonesome Pine Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,215 (+5%)	10mo	$76,000	$63	80
4343 Danville St	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,162 (+0%)	22mo	$62,000	$53	75
4397 Danville St	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,134 (-2%)	22mo	$70,000	$62	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.71% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.31×
• Total profit: $45,358
• Equity at exit: $30,325

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.59×
• Total profit: $109,596
• Equity at exit: $45,860

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36108

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,340 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $792/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $597

Break-even live

Break-even rent $585

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2023-10-23
   soldstatus $55,000
2. 2023-02-09
   status Pending
3. 2023-01-25
   listed $70,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $792 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $792 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,084
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$792
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,287
• − Management: −$1,287
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $6,411
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,539
• After-tax cash flow: $5,621/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery County
• NCES district ID: 0102430
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,902
• Composite: 17.24/100
• National rank: #9093
• State rank: #106 of 129 in AL

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #13416

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Montgomery, AL
• City population: 175,913
• Population (ZIP): 15,549

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 224,008 people
• By 2030: 221,460 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 214,179 · -4.4%
• By 2050: 204,912 · -8.5%
• By 2075: 177,821 · -20.6%
• By 2100: 145,134 · -35.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 82% White 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+30.7) · D 64.8% · R 34.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.2pp · 2024: 30.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+30.7 2020: D+31.5 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+24.3 2008: D+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.71%
• Current HPI: 95.2405
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-21.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2023-10-23 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2023-02-09 Pending — MAAR
• 2023-01-25 Listed $70,000 MAAR

Property tax history

+12.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $792 · +115.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.