2061 Retama Dr

Falcon Lake Estates, TX 78076

$159,900D

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Active · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,151/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$273
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $-203/mo
• Annual: $-2,433/yr
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.43%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $44,772

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-203 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $124k (22.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (28.0% below list).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $115k (28.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#748 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Zapata County ISD (town): math 21% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #767 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Zapata South El (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 467 students, 86% FRL); Zapata Middle (math 15% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,428 of 1,662 statewide, top 87%, 784 students, 83% FRL); Zapata H S (math 25% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,034 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 70% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP.
• Zapata County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.