2061 Retama Dr · Falcon Lake Estates, TX 78076

$159,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,512 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1986 0.45 ac lot $106/sqft · 30% below area Est $226k · 29% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Key facts

• 0.45 acre lot
• Built 1986
• Listed 24 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; Single story
• Construction: Brick veneer and stucco construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-203 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $124k (22.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (28.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $115k (28.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#748 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Zapata County ISD (town): math 21% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #767 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Zapata South El (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 467 students, 86% FRL); Zapata Middle (math 15% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,428 of 1,662 statewide, top 87%, 784 students, 83% FRL); Zapata H S (math 25% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,034 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 70% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Zapata County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,063 (28.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.43%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $226,087
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: -29.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $3,082
• Equity at exit: $68,398

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $33,278
• Equity at exit: $102,766

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78076

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,151 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$207 /mo · $2,479/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $-203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,407

Max offer price $124,087

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-112	-5% $-157	+0% $-203	+5% $-248	+10% $-293
Rent	-10% $-294	-5% $-248	+0% $-203	+5% $-157	+10% $-112
Rate	-1.0pp $-122	-0.5pp $-162	base $-203	+0.5pp $-244	+1.0pp $-286

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,900 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,900 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $159,900 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $159,900 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,900 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,900 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,900 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 3 DOM
18. 2026-03-18
    price $159,900
19. 2026-01-27
    listed $165,000 Active
20. 2025-07-22
    listed $165,000 Active
21. 2019-12-11
    soldstatus
22. 2007-08-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,479 · $207/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,926 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$447/yr (+$37/mo · 18.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 59% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,808
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,479
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,105
• − Management: −$1,105
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$5,288
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,269
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,163/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Zapata County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846710
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $30,189
• Composite: 18.09/100
• National rank: #8974
• State rank: #767 of 826 in TX

Livability — Falcon Lake Estates

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #748
• US rank: #13800

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Falcon Lake Estates, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,085

Population outlook (Zapata County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,795 people
• By 2030: 14,837 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 14,759 · -0.2%
• By 2050: 14,316 · -3.2%
• By 2075: 11,647 · -21.3%
• By 2100: 7,265 · -50.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 94% Two or more races 52% White 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 89%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 16% English-only · Spanish 84% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Zapata

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.4) · D 38.5% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -58.0pp toward R · 2008: 35.6pp · 2024: -22.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.4 2020: R+5.3 2016: D+32.8 2012: D+43.2 2008: D+35.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Current HPI: 117.0315
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $159,900 LAOR
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $159,900 LAOR
• 2026-01-27 Listed $165,000 LAOR
• 2025-07-22 Listed $165,000 LAOR
• 2019-12-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-08-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,479 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.