31 Rio Grande Cir #11

Florence, KY 41042

$173,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 956 sqft · Built 1991 · Condo · Active · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,690/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$907
• Tax + insurance: −$174
• HOA: −$322
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $-69/mo
• Annual: $-822/yr
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.70%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $48,440

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $173k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-69 ($-822/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (7.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (2.3% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $161k (7.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#82 in KY, #2,763 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-.
• Boone County (suburban): math 43% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #12 of 165 in KY (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Erpenbeck Elementary School (math 65% / reading 68%, grade B+, #17 of 676 statewide, top 2%, 702 students, 28% FRL); Ockerman Middle School (math 35% / reading 50%, grade D-, #47 of 217 statewide, top 22%, 653 students, 47% FRL); Randall K. Cooper High School (math 46% / reading 50%, grade D, #17 of 254 statewide, top 6%, 1,462 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 265 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,430 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (928 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Boone County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 32y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $173k implies a 92% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.4% in Florence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.