31 Rio Grande Cir #11 · Florence, KY 41042

$173,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 956 sqft · Condo public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1991 $322/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

You must see this really nice open and spacious condo with cathedral ceilings, fresh paint, laminate floors, super nice layout with split bedroom design, 2 full baths, pretty kitchen with newer appliances, and white kitchen cabinets, washer & dryer stay! Nice deck, walk in closets, clubhouse, pool and tennis courts!

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Private bath
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BREAKFAST BAR
• PRIVATE BATH
• GENEROUS CLOSET SPACE
• COVERED DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee (includes association fees, grounds maintenance, and management); Community amenities: parking, landscaping, pool, clubhouse

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Condominium; One level; Entry level: 3; Existing structure; Built in 1991
• Construction: Aluminum siding and brick exterior; Shingle roof; Poured concrete foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Balcony; Storage structure

Interior

• Kitchen: Stainless steel appliances; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (16 x 11); Bedroom 2 (11 x 11)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Storage; Pantry; Open floor plan; High-speed internet available; Entrance foyer; Ceiling fans; Intercom; Vaulted ceilings; Wood-burning fireplace with ceramic surround
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $173k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-69 ($-822/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (7.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (2.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (7.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.4% in Florence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#82 in KY, #2,763 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-.
• Boone County (suburban): math 43% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #12 of 165 in KY (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Erpenbeck Elementary School (math 65% / reading 68%, grade B+, #17 of 676 statewide, top 2%, 702 students, 28% FRL); Ockerman Middle School (math 35% / reading 50%, grade D-, #47 of 217 statewide, top 22%, 653 students, 47% FRL); Randall K. Cooper High School (math 46% / reading 50%, grade D, #17 of 254 statewide, top 6%, 1,462 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 265 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,430 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (928 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Boone County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 32y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $173k implies a 92% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $160,897 (7.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.70%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-31,526
• Equity at exit: $25,795

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-29,480
• Equity at exit: $14,958

Cash invested: $48,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41042

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,690 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$907
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,228/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$322
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $-69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,777

Max offer price $160,897

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,250
• Closing costs: $5,190
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1620 Corinthian Dr Florence, KY	2.0–3.0	2.0	1165	$1,451	$1.25	2d	21	0.99mi
239 Landon Ct Florence, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1228	$2,222	$1.81	1d	11	1.00mi
1000 Tamarack Cir Florence, KY	2.0	1.0	825	$1,434	$1.74	2d	6	1.01mi
1919 Promenade CIR Union, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1071	$2,020	$1.89	3d	38	1.41mi
8000 Preakness Dr Florence, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1110	$1,585	$1.43	1d	30	1.45mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $322 · $3,864/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $173,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $173,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $173,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $173,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $173,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $173,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $173,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $173,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-05
    listed $173,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,228 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,488 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$260/yr (+$22/mo · 21.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,281
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,691
• − Property taxes: −$1,228
• − Insurance: −$865
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,622
• − Management: −$1,622
• − HOA: −$3,864
• − Depreciation: −$5,033
• Taxable loss: −$3,645
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$875
• After-tax cash flow: $53/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Boone County
• NCES district ID: 2100510
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $68,096
• Composite: 41.18/100
• National rank: #3550
• State rank: #12 of 165 in KY

Livability — Florence

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #82
• US rank: #2763

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Florence, KY
• County: Boone County · 99,563 people
• City population: 57,634
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 57,634
• Household income: $79,712
• Rent vs Own: 33.2% rent · 66.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1397.0

Population outlook (Boone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,066 people
• By 2030: 152,005 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 166,776 · +15.8%
• By 2050: 178,974 · +24.2%
• By 2075: 204,515 · +42.0%
• By 2100: 215,306 · +49.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 7% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Boone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.2) · D 30.6% · R 67.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.7pp toward R · 2008: -34.5pp · 2024: -37.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.2 2020: R+35.7 2016: R+41.8 2012: R+38.7 2008: R+34.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -195.07%
• Current HPI: 206.3259
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+166.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $173,000 NKMLS
• 2019-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2019-11-04 Sold (MLS) $90,000 NKMLS
• 2019-08-12 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2019-08-01 Listed $93,000 NKMLS
• 1998-03-27 Sold (MLS) $65,900 NKMLS
• 1998-01-30 Listed $67,500 NKMLS
• 1995-09-22 Sold (MLS) $62,900 NKMLS
• 1995-08-10 Listed $63,750 NKMLS
• 1995-04-13 Sold (MLS) $62,033 NKMLS
• 1994-12-12 Listed $64,900 NKMLS

Property tax history

+12.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,228 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.