23 Lakewood Ave

Lake Ronkonkoma, NY 11779

$539,000C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,822 sqft · Built 1954 · SingleFamily · Pending · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,478/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,827
• Tax + insurance: −$664
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$940
• Net cashflow: $47/mo
• Annual: $560/yr
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.37%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $150,920

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $539k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $47 ($560/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $448k (16.9% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($531k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $448k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#169 in NY, #2,606 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities D-, cost of living F.
• Sachem Central School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #86 of 590 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 174 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.0% in Lake Ronkonkoma — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,478/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($112k/yr) (locally 874% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.