23 Lakewood Ave · Lake Ronkonkoma, NY 11779

$539,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,822 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1954 6,098 sqft lot $296/sqft · 23% below area Est $700k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This classic four-bedroom, two-full-bath Cape Cod is perfectly situated on a corner lot. It boasts a newer roof, gas furnace, and gleaming hardwood floors throughout. The spacious sunroom offers an abundance of natural light, creating a serene retreat. Located just minutes from the Long Island Railroad, as well as convenient shopping and dining options, this home offers both comfort and convenience.

Key facts

• Gas furnace
• Newer roof
• Natural light

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• NEWER ROOF
• GAS FURNACE
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• SPACIOUS SUNROOM
• NATURAL LIGHT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $539k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($505/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $447k (17.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $447k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.0% in Lake Ronkonkoma — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#169 in NY, #2,606 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities D-, cost of living F.
• Sachem Central School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #86 of 590 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 173 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,472/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($112k/yr) (locally 874% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($531k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $447,166 (17.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.33%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $700,486
• List price: $539,000
• Delta: -23.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22 10th St	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (-1%)	11mo	$685,000	$381	71
12 Bay Ave	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,728 (-5%)	9mo	$610,000	$353	69
12 Wyant Ave	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,988 (+9%)	11mo	$615,000	$309	68
47 2nd St	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,858 (+2%)	0mo	$650,000	$350	64
35 Lakewood Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (-1%)	16mo	$685,000	$381	63
N/C Caroll Ave	0.22mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,020 (+11%)	7mo	$800,000	$396	57
327 Ronkonkoma Ave	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,000 (+10%)	12mo	$999,950	$500	55
30 Lake Promenade	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,954 (+7%)	10mo	$715,000	$366	54
38 12th St	0.35mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,696 (-7%)	13mo	$700,000	$413	52
39 & 41 Foster Rd	0.73mi	5/3.5 (+1)	1,800 (-1%)	4mo	$1,225,000	$681	49
37 Weichers Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,666 (-9%)	3mo	$695,000	$417	46
45 Marc St	0.51mi	4/2.5	2,039 (+12%)	12mo	$720,000	$353	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-94,467
• Equity at exit: $80,367

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-117,312
• Equity at exit: $46,603

Cash invested: $150,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11779

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,472 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,827
• Tax from tax record: −$439 /mo · $5,272/yr
• Insurance: −$225
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$939
• Net cashflow: $42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,418

Max offer price $539,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $134,750
• Closing costs: $16,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2 Hawkins Ave Lake Ronkonkoma, NY	3.0	1.0–2.0	959	$4,980	$5.19	1d	129	0.51mi
16 Birch Dr Ronkonkoma, NY	3.0	2.0	1536	$4,250	$2.77	24d	1	0.71mi
100 Lake Rd Ronkonkoma, NY	3.0	2.5	1800	$4,500	$2.50	44d	1	0.74mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 402-char remark

   Show marketing remark (402 chars)

   This classic four-bedroom, two-full-bath Cape Cod is perfectly situated on a corner lot. It boasts a newer roof, gas furnace, and gleaming hardwood floors throughout. The spacious sunroom offers an abundance of natural light, creating a serene retreat. Located just minutes from the Long Island Railroad, as well as convenient shopping and dining options, this home offers both comfort and convenience.

2. 2026-04-14
   listed $539,000 Active 402-char remark

   Show marketing remark (402 chars)

   This classic four-bedroom, two-full-bath Cape Cod is perfectly situated on a corner lot. It boasts a newer roof, gas furnace, and gleaming hardwood floors throughout. The spacious sunroom offers an abundance of natural light, creating a serene retreat. Located just minutes from the Long Island Railroad, as well as convenient shopping and dining options, this home offers both comfort and convenience.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,272 · $439/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,191 · $599/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,918/yr (+$160/mo · 36.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,660
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,192
• − Property taxes: −$5,272
• − Insurance: −$2,695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,293
• − Management: −$4,293
• − Depreciation: −$15,680
• Taxable loss: −$8,766
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,104
• After-tax cash flow: $2,609/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sachem Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625350
• Math proficiency: 69% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $92,968
• Composite: 65.53/100
• National rank: #472
• State rank: #86 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake Ronkonkoma

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #2606

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute B- Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Ronkonkoma, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 38,273
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 38,206
• Household income: $112,180
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 874.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 9% Asian 7% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -569.98%
• Current HPI: 350.0973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.79%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Listed $539,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,272 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.