4343 Cherry Hill Rd #705

Arlington, VA 22207

$260,000F

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 1963 · Condo · Active · 103 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,689/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax + insurance: −$360
• HOA: −$1,034
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$565
• Net cashflow: $-633/mo
• Annual: $-7,590/yr
• Cap rate: 3.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.43%
• DSCR: 0.54
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $72,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $260k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-633 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (43.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $260k).
• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $148k (43.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#14 in VA, #387 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, amenities A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Arlington County Public School District (urban): math 65% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #8 of 131 in VA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 38% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 155 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 621 units permitted in Arlington County in 2024 (429 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Arlington County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 3.4% vs local median 1.7% in Arlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 13% of the median local income ($246k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?