3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,584 sqft ·
Built 1952
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 45 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,192/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$341
Tax + insurance
−$108
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$250
Net cashflow
$492/mo
Annual
$5,909/yr
Cap rate
15.38%
Cash-on-cash
32.46%
DSCR
2.44
1% rule
1.83%
Cash to close
$18,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $492 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 56/100 on livability (#458 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing D, amenities F, commute F.
Graves County (rural): math 47% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #10 of 165 in KY (top 6%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Farmington Elementary School (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #47 of 676 statewide, top 8%, 266 students, 62% FRL); Graves County Middle School (math 37% / reading 52%, grade D, #36 of 217 statewide, top 18%, 621 students, 53% FRL); Graves County High School (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #57 of 254 statewide, top 22%, 1,096 students, 49% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 126 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Graves County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Graves County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
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· Data 6 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29