Cleveland (price excludes land-add $1.2M+/-) Plan

Arlington, VA 22205

$1,382,641F

6 bd · 4.5 ba · 5,763 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 546 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $9,640/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$11,189
• Tax + insurance: −$3,556
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,024
• Net cashflow: $-7,129/mo
• Annual: $-85,553/yr
• Cap rate: 2.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.32%
• DSCR: 0.36
• 1% rule: 0.45%
• Cash to close: $597,426

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $1.38M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7k ($-86k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.10M (20.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $964k (30.3% below list).
• It's been on market 546 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.22M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $964k (30.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $15k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $64k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#14 in VA, #387 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, amenities A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Arlington County Public School District (urban): math 65% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #8 of 131 in VA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 586 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 621 units permitted in Arlington County in 2024 (429 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Arlington County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.3% vs local median 1.7% in Arlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 546 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.