Cleveland (price excludes land-add $1.2M+/-) Plan · Arlington, VA 22205

$1,382,641

6 bd · 4.5 ba · 5,763 sqft · SingleFamily · 546 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Cash flow +2.8/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Please note: Price excludes lot price. Add $1.2M or more for a tear-down lot. The listed price is an approximate home price estimate. Contact us by calling or texting 301-370-6464 or visit www. paramountconstruction.net to get an exact price for building this model on your lot or one of our available lots in Arlington, Bethesda, Chevy Chase, Falls Church, McLean, Potomac, Vienna, or Northwest D. C. You can also download free new home plans when you visit www. paramountconstruction.net. Please note: Price excludes lot price: The listed price does not include the cost of the lot. What's included in the price: Demolition of existing home (up to 3,000 sq ft) Permits Utility connections (assumes standard fees) PCI Standard Finish Specification Package Sod installation (up to 6,000 sq ft) Landscaping Customization: Price depends on the size and finishes you choose. Upgraded finishes: Some photos may display upgraded finishes not included in the listed price. Site costs: May vary based on the specific site conditions. Let us help you build the home of your dreams in your preferred location. Contact us today for more information by calling or texting 301-370-6464 or visiting www. paramountconstruction.net.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 546 days

🏗️ New construction. The $1,382,641 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $2,133,663.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $1.38M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7k ($-86k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.10M (20.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $964k (30.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $964k (30.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.3% vs local median 1.7% in Arlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#14 in VA, #387 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, amenities A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Arlington County Public School District (urban): math 65% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #8 of 131 in VA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 586 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 621 units permitted in Arlington County in 2024 (429 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $15k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $64k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Arlington County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 546 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.22M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $964,028 (30.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 546 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.45% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.32%
• DSCR: 0.36
• GRM: 18.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,133,663
• List price: $1,382,641
• Delta: -35.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6400 26th St N	0.27mi	6/6.5	5,826 (+1%)	10mo	$2,276,700	$391	70
6243 22nd Rd N	0.12mi	5/4.5 (-1)	5,036 (-13%)	2mo	$2,350,000	$467	67
2315 N Tuckahoe St	0.23mi	6/6.5	6,171 (+7%)	7mo	$3,050,000	$494	64
6300 28th St N	0.46mi	6/5.5	5,626 (-2%)	12mo	$2,290,000	$407	61
6301 31st St N	0.63mi	6/6.5	5,740 (-0%)	6mo	$2,670,000	$465	57
5934 16th St N	0.62mi	6/4.5	5,092 (-12%)	0mo	$2,400,000	$471	51
6631 29th St N	0.62mi	5/3.0 (-1)	6,125 (+6%)	1mo	$2,475,000	$404	49
6807 29th St N	0.69mi	6/6.5	5,950 (+3%)	10mo	$2,700,000	$454	46
6200 31st St N	0.61mi	7/8.0 (+1)	5,814 (+1%)	8mo	$2,495,000	$429	44
2830 N Tacoma St	0.57mi	7/6.5 (+1)	6,176 (+7%)	7mo	$2,699,000	$437	42
2909 N Sycamore St N	0.57mi	7/6.5 (+1)	6,202 (+8%)	10mo	$2,353,175	$379	40
3010 N Tacoma St	0.70mi	7/7.5 (+1)	6,407 (+11%)	8mo	$2,845,764	$444	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -43.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-799,678
• Equity at exit: $318,136

10-year hold

• IRR: -76.6%
• Equity multiple: -1.14×
• Total profit: $-1,280,452
• Equity at exit: $184,480

Cash invested: $597,426 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22205

• Active inventory: 586
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,640 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$11,189
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$2,667 /mo · $32,005/yr
• Insurance: −$889
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,024
• Net cashflow: $-7,129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $18,665

Max offer price $1,102,021

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $533,416
• Closing costs: $64,010
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2233 N Underwood St Falls Church, VA	5.0	4.5	5035	$10,000	$1.99	1d	1	0.90mi
5553 Little Falls Rd Arlington, VA	6.0	4.5	7885	$9,200	$1.17	1d	1	0.92mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,382,641 Active 546 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,382,641 Active 545 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,382,641 Active 544 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,382,641 Active 543 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,382,641 Active 541 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,382,641 Active 537 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,382,641 Active 536 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,382,641 Active 535 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $1,382,641 Active 531 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,382,641 Active 530 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,382,641 Active 529 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,382,641 Active 528 DOM
13. 2024-12-19
    listed $1,382,641 Active 1217-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1217 chars)

    Please note: Price excludes lot price. Add $1.2M or more for a tear-down lot. The listed price is an approximate home price estimate. Contact us by calling or texting 301-370-6464 or visit www. paramountconstruction.net to get an exact price for building this model on your lot or one of our available lots in Arlington, Bethesda, Chevy Chase, Falls Church, McLean, Potomac, Vienna, or Northwest D. C. You can also download free new home plans when you visit www. paramountconstruction.net. Please note: Price excludes lot price: The listed price does not include the cost of the lot. What's included in the price: Demolition of existing home (up to 3,000 sq ft) Permits Utility connections (assumes standard fees) PCI Standard Finish Specification Package Sod installation (up to 6,000 sq ft) Landscaping Customization: Price depends on the size and finishes you choose. Upgraded finishes: Some photos may display upgraded finishes not included in the listed price. Site costs: May vary based on the specific site conditions. Let us help you build the home of your dreams in your preferred location. Contact us today for more information by calling or texting 301-370-6464 or visiting www. paramountconstruction.net.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $115,683
• − Mortgage interest: −$119,518
• − Property taxes: −$32,005
• − Insurance: −$10,668
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,255
• − Management: −$9,255
• − Depreciation: −$62,070
• Taxable loss: −$127,088
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$30,501
• After-tax cash flow: $-55,052/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Arlington County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100270
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $103,164
• Composite: 65.23/100
• National rank: #492
• State rank: #8 of 131 in VA

Livability — Arlington

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #14
• US rank: #387

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arlington, VA
• City population: 236,086
• Population (ZIP): 17,566

Population outlook (Arlington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 278,021 people
• By 2030: 301,560 · +8.5%
• By 2040: 349,063 · +25.6%
• By 2050: 399,147 · +43.6%
• By 2075: 505,325 · +81.8%
• By 2100: 584,095 · +110.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Arlington

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+58.6) · D 78.2% · R 19.6% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 44.6pp · 2024: 58.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+58.6 2020: D+63.5 2016: D+60.1 2012: D+39.9 2008: D+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -740.23%
• Current HPI: 379.7017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-12-19 Listed $1,382,641 Zillow